FLASHREPORT

I was kind of surprised by the number released in the 36th Senate District GOP Primary to succeed Dennis Hollingsworth.

I know this will be another shocker. I am biased towards the three candidates. 

Assemblyman Joel Anderson is sure to be in the race. From October 2007 to December 2008 I was his Chief of Staff and I've known him for almost 20 years. I also know school board member Ken Dickson. Good man and a conservative. I have meet Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Stone and his sister once at the most recent CRP Convention.

But what stunned me was the Cash on Hand numbers for a primary just a few short months away. Anderson had $242,687.60, while Stone had only $84,944.13 and Ken Dickson was only 900 dollars behind that at $84,013.15.

This is significant because of geography in this race. In the 2002 GOP primary about 17% of voters were from the Riverside part of the district. The rest of the district is in Eastern San Diego County. In 2006 the Riverside portion climbed to a little over 19%.

Hollingsworth overcame the geography deficit by being the conservative candidate and he was only candidate from the Riverside portion of the District.

I think it is a safe bet that it will be hard to get to the right of Assemblyman Anderson as Dickson and Stone have the best name identification in Riverside County.

I know I'm biased, but the numbers tell the story. You would have to be stoned not to see it. Now for some munchies.

Brett Henry leaving the race opened up the San Bernardino area of the seat for another candidate. Ken Hunter is already running from that side of the district. Hesperia Unified School Board Member Anthony Riley is getting in the race. Anthony worked for Supervisor Gary Ovitt until recently and hung out a shingle for a PR firm.

Riley has had an interesting journey. While part of his resume is staffer, he was also principal of the now defunct charter school.

But even more importantly Anthony Riley was on Melrose Place. Yes in a small role he was back when Heather Locklear, no relation to the State Treasurer, was hot. Okay she is still hot.

A couple of issues may be in a GOP primary are the fact the local teachers union supported his election and the charter school officials up above him are in criminal trials (not him, but mail pieces may say it.).

More importantly can he raise the money? The machine in San Bernardino County that was there when Adams was elected is not there. Although, Riley has shown he can compete in many difficult environments.

This race will be a barnburner. Check out past stories starting here.

A few interesting developments that add to my original post.

Dick Mountjoy has endorsed Chris Lancaster. Mountjoy and later his son represented the 59th Assembly District. Mountjoy cites Lancaster's Family Values and commitment on taxes. This is big endorsement that will help Lancaster with conservatives in the district. A big endorsement for Lancaster.

Also, Brett Henry the President of the local firefighters union has decided not run.

Stay tuned

The surprise decision by Assemblyman Adams not to seek re-election to the 59th Assembly District has set off a scramble for the sprawling Los Angeles and San Bernardino County seat.
 
The 59th District contains all or parts of the Eastern Los Angeles County communities of. Los Angeles County communities of Claremont, La Verne, Glendora, San Dimas, Sierra Madre, Monrovia, Bradbury, Arcadia and La Crescenta then suddenly goes north through the Angeles Forest and East into San Bernardino to take in the San Bernardino County communities of Apple Valley, Hesperia, Lake Arrowhead, Crestline, San Bernardino, Highland and Mentone. It is a district that makes the case for redistricting reform
 
As a result the two sections really don't have much in common. Except that many in the SB County portions grew up in the San Gabriel Valley.
 
The first draft of this district in the 2000 reapportionment had it running along the 210 freeway into Upland to Rancho Cucamonga. The story goes that someone wanted to run for Assembly in those areas and didn't want to challenge the incumbent Dennis Mountjoy. Next draft solved that problem and opened up a new 63rd Assembly District.
 
One key point is that this district will disappear after this term. Nobody believes that it will stay the same. The L.A. portions will be part of a new district, same with the Apple Valley parts. The result is that anyone running spending his or her own cash is really taking a gamble on what happens next cycle.

First, I am not moving to Glendora. You can put you IE knives back and relax.
 
The people closest getting to the race or are in the race from what I know are:

Chris Lancaster. Lancaster is the son of the late Assemblyman Bill Lancaster. (There is a freeway out here named after the Assemblyman. Lancaster lost handily to Adams in the primary four years ago. He is an executive at the San Gabriel Valley Newspaper Group. Lancaster is a former Covina City Councilman. As a Councilman in the early nineties he voted for a utility tax and he was recalled along with the entire council. (Full disclosure I consulted for one of the committees supporting the recall. He was later elected to the council again and in a lesson about recalls turn out the utility tax is still there.
 
This was a big issue last as Adams ironically pummeled him on the issue. I'm sure this will be an issue this time as well. I spoke with Lancaster recently. He says that during that time period he was "young, naive and arrogant". I don't think he would ever vote for a tax again. But it will be an issue. Another potential problem is he has donated to Democrats in the past.
 
Lancaster is also a social conservative. I bet he is the only candidate so far that donated a publicly carried around a Prop 8 sign. That can work in a GOP primary and he strength will be on the LA side of the district. He tells me that if he runs he is planning on loaning his campaign 100K.
 
Corey Calaycay: Calaycay is Mayor of Claremont and is in his second term as a councilman. Calaycay is familiar in the LA portions of the district as field representative for Assemblyman and later Senator Bob Margett and Assemblyman Bob Pacheco. He also worked for Assemblyman Todd Spitzer.
 
On Sunday, Calaycay told me he was opening an account and putting 50K in it. He is making the rounds with the many elected officials that he knows from work and from the council. Those are his strengths. Claremont is the least Republican city in the district, but contains colleges that may be a source of volunteers.
 
Michael Rogers: Rogers is a teacher and football coach at South Hills High School and a member of the San Gabriel Valley Lincoln Club. He has never run for office before. Before teaching he was an attorney.
 
He was one of two candidates running against Adams in the primary. He opposes taxes and the upcoming water bond. He is running as a conservative.
 
Ken Hunter: Hunter is a real estate broker from Lake Arrowhead. He too was running for the seat before Adams stepped down. I spoke to him a little before that. He is a conservative. He was planning a campaign budget of 30,000 and was hoping the recall Adams folks get into the race. (More on that later). Hunter was headed to Sacramento to talk about his campaign. He will be running a very populist campaign.
 
Bret Henry. Henry is from the San Bernardino part of the district. Henry is president of the San Bernardino County Professional Firefighter Local 935. Obviously, firefighters are popular, especially in the mountain parts of Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties. Most people expect public safety unions to get into the race. That is what could also be the issue he is hit on. Public employee unions are taking hits over pensions and this union is affiliated with the AFL-CIO through the International Association of Fire Fighters. In can see the ad linking him to health care reform (without the Cadillac tax), Obama etc... He is also a trustee for the County retirement system.
 
So far LA County candidates seem to outnumber SB County candidates. That is a consideration in this race.
 
Wild Cards: There are two wild cards in the race.

WWMD? What Would Mountjoy Do? Does he endorse someone? His name still carries a lot of name recognition in parts of this district, especially with activists. I know Lancaster has spoken with him. Dick Mountjoy served with Bill Lancaster until their seats were combined in the early nineties.
 
Second is: Does Atlas PAC, John and Ken and other pro-recall people get involved in the race. If they do that becomes the issue.
 
Maybe I need to call my realtor?
 
 
 
 
 
 

The Lieutenant Governors race is sure different than just a few months ago. Back in that day Sen. Jeff Denham had been campaigning for over a year. His successful defeat of a recall aimed at his "no" vote on a bloated unbalanced budget allowed him to raise money and develop contacts statewide. Sen. Aanestad had jumped in and need to raise money quick.

Today, Denham is running for Assembly, Aanestad still needs to raise money (he can win if he can get his message out) and the Governor has vaulted Sen. Abel Maldonado into the LG race. Whether he is confirmed or not, Maldonado is in the LG race to stay.

It is no secret that with a little money a candidate can beat Maldonado in the GOP Primary. It is difficult to choose which betrayal of mainstream GOP and Californian voters to list as a reason to reject his candidacy, but I hope someone does an ad about his signing the no new tax pledge and then voting for huge tax increases. (His consistent betrayal of the GOP core principles and his ability to break his word does explain why he is good fit for the Governor as LG.)

So now that the field has changed, does Bill Simon say yes to running for LG?

There are advantages. This seat is essentially an open seat, with at worst an appointed, by an unpopular and failed Governor, incumbent.

Maldonado has showed he can't win in a statewide GOP primary and that was before some of his recent votes.

Bill Simon can use the primary to warm up for whichever Democrat wins a nasty primary. The leading contenders all have baggage and Simon has been through the rough and tumble, lesson learning of a nasty statewide campaign. 

Should he run and win he is next in line to be Governor.

Simon wins, Maldonado loses. Seems like a good deal to me and the rest of California.

The rule of three has been surpassed. More than three people have told me that Senator Dave Cogdill is planning to run for County Assessor in Stanislaus County. The current County Assessor is not seeking re-election. Imeediately speculation focuses on Cogdill. Well he is in. Cogdill's campaign team or least part of his campaign team has been activated and are making arrangements.

Senator Cogdill recently decided not to run for re-election to the State Senate. He of course was Republican Leader of the Senate an most recently was one of the major architects of the water reform and bond. Cogdill was mentioned as a possible Lt. Governor pick before the Governor choose a fellow liberal Democrat :)

It is important to note that Cogdill was in the real estate appraisal business before his election to public office.

Senator Cogdill's decision not to run for re-election may impact the race to replace Bill Leonard on the Board of Equalization.

Former Assemblyman Alan Nakanishi is seriously looking at a run at Senate District 14. Nakanishi previously ran for Senate against Mike Machado in 2000 and just missed. The race, assuming Mike Villines stays put for Insurance Commissioner, has only one other big name opponent, Assembly Tom Berryhill. Berryhill is oft mentioned as a possible successor to Sam Blakslee as Assembly Republican Leader.

Nakanishi would have to be able to get his money back from the various slates he bought. That would give him the half a million needed to run in the senate race.  Having him change to Senate race changes the dynamics in a race that featured him, State Senator and rumored ballot title "Taxpayer Advocate" George Runner, Former Assemblywoman and Leonard's deputy Barbara Alby and Senator Roy Ashburn.  

His odds to win the Senate seat seem better than beating both Runner and Alby. 

And people say nothing politcal happens over the holidays.

Republicans should be winning and in fact in a week, Republican candidates will most likely become Governor of Virginia and possibly even New Jersey. Obviously that is a great sign. Both candidates are generally conservative and are running as such.

A recent Gallup poll showed that 40% of Americans say their political views are conservative. Only 20% said their views are liberal and 36% said their views are moderate.

But things really aren't that good. A recent Washington Post Poll showed only 19% of the people identified themselves as Republican.

Why is the Republican Party doing so poorly when people say they are conservative?

The answer is leadership. In particular Republican Leadership. In the late 1970's through the early 1990's the Republican party was perceived as the party for conservatives. Thanks to Ronald Reagan and others we saw areas realign and that culminated in the 1994 take over of Congress.

After that the Republican Party Leadership decided big government...good. Corruption. Sure. Why not? There are many other failings of our leadership. Basically, they de-linked the Republican Party from conservatism.

And they wonder why we are losing voters?

That brings us to the special election in New York-23. The Republican bosses selected as the Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava who is pro-abortion, against the right to work, for gay marriage and for government run health care.

Jon Fleischman penned a good view of the race today.

Fortunately, the Conservative Party has a ballot line in New York and nominated Doug Hoffman as their candidate. Now Democrats are focused on beating him as the Republican that votes like a Democrat is fading.

In New York, Conservatives can't vote Republican. Palin, Pawlenty, Thompson and others get it. This is the chance to send the leadership of the party a message. Stop ruining our party and return to the principles that brought us a majority. The best part will be if voters send him to Congress as a walking symbol of the bankrupt GOP leadership and the future path to victory.

Sometimes you can't just vote Republican. This is one of those times.

Glendora has always been a pretty conservative town. Most of their school board elections haven't been that exciting over the years. 

This year a familiar Republican activist is running against three incumbents.

Former Three-term Los Angeles County Republican Party Chair Linda Boyd is running for a seat. Many know here and her husband CRP Regional Vice-Chair Doug Boyd as GOP activists. 

But they are busier than that. Between them they have eleven children. They have a 3 year old daughter Reagan (a name stolen from the Spence's) and adopted 2 year old twins Christian and Karleigh So they will soon have skin in the game
.
In what may be an instance of too full disclosure one board member is Mike Guatreau. Mike is a Republican and principal of West Covina High School. He also is one of two school board members (yes there are two, the other is Covina Valley's Darrell Myrick) in the state that have had the high privilege of seeing me on a regular basis in a Speedo as my a high school swim coach. 

The big issue is a proposed parcel tax. Glendora has been hit hard by declining enrollment and recently decided to close a school. Some want a parcel tax to make up the shortfalls. The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association is supporting Boyd. Will voters rally to her cause? This is one town they may. Find out November 3, 2009. You can help Linda here.

While the controversy will continue to rage about President Barack Obama's decision to address school children.

I am stunned not by the obvious attempt to look great or indoctrinate young people. Don't get me wrong all those things are important and clearly this is his attempt to reach young people and their voting parents with an "important message" of stay in school and work hard. As long as he is mentioning stuff, clean your room should be added to the list.

Yes, it is a waste of instructional time etc...

But what bothers me is trying to figure out this question.

Does Barack Obama believe he has the power to change the culture of  students by giving a speech?

There is no doubt that Presidents can be inspirational. John F Kennedy, Ronald Reagan and others have proved that,.

In some cases I think a half hour from Sponge Bob (my son picked him over Obama) or a song from Adam Lambert (my daughter says he is cooll) would be more effective with dealing with a culture than a speech by a man that had to overcome graduating from such horrible schools like Columbia and Harvard or even the private schools in Hawaii or Indonesia he attended before college.

Years ago, in West Covina we once had a councilman that always wanted to speak at graduation to show what you could become as a graduate. It never happened, because we really weren't that impressed. More disturbing was what he thought of himself. He thought just his story alone could change the lives of all those within earshot.

A person can make a difference and words can make a difference, but it is the people who think that all they have to do is draw attention to themselves to make a difference that bothers me. Actually, kind of scares me. Megalomania is scary in a councilman, but a President?

Reminds me of part of a song I've heard once or twice, courtesy of Megadeth (New album coming out next week!)

You take a mortal man
And put him in control
Watch him become a god
Watch peoples heads a 'roll
A 'roll, a 'roll

Just like the pied piper
Led rats through the streets
We dance like Marionettes
Swaying to the symphony of destruction

Well at least heads aren't rolling yet. We will have to wait for government rationed healthcare for that.

Some PAC's try to conceal who they really represent, others are quite open about the interests they represent. I came across a PAC that now has my support for favorite name.

Their ID number is 1302807.

Their name is "POLITICAL REFORM FEDERATION PURPOSE: TO STOP ILLEGAL PROLIFERATION & USE OF DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPONS, MICROWAVE RADIATION WEAPONS, THAT ARE BEING USED FOR ELECTRONIC HARASSMENTS, MIND CONTROL, ETC.".

Unfortunately, they didn't electronically have to report donations or at least no one used mind control to make them report it.

I don't know what PAC's are supporting such weapons, but this PAC is either a shill for the aluminum foil industry or it explains why too many Republicans vote for bigger government when they get elected.

The voices are telling me to be supportive of their effort.

Republican turned Democrat Long Beach City Councilman Robert Garcia is happy to tell you what to do. After his election to the city council he immediately got down to business to squash all those scofflaws smoking at bus stops.

Now Garcia has a new personal crusade. According to LBReport.com, he wants Long Beach to coerce businesses doing business with the city to give benefits to domestic partnerships. Garcia, who is gay, not that there is anything wrong with that, believes that this is more important the contracting with the qualified lowest bidder.

Of course, taxpayers will pay for the benefits as companies that do business with the city charge more to cover their costs. Other cities that have done this like San Francisco and LA aren't shining examples of fiscal responsibility.

These ordinances aren't about the money, they are about forcing their view about homosexuality on business OR making sure people of faith don't have opportunity to bid on government contracts.  

The Long Beach Chamber of Commerce is neutral. They have to be or else. If the issue was forcing businesses to use E-verify to check immigration status or accept wage conditions, the Chamber would highlight the problem. But oppose a mandate about Gay and Lesbians. No way

They are about official government sponsored intolerance, not that homosexual activists find any thing wrong with that.

June's local school tax elections went 3 for 4. Yesterday La Canada Unified approved a parcel tax with over 70% of the Vote. They join Palos Verdes Peninsula and South Pasadena Unified in passing parcel taxes. Yours truly went 4 for 4 when Rowland Unified's attempt to pass a parcel tax got a little over 51% of the vote. Parcel taxes need a two-thirds vote to pass.

It seems that these votes were referendums on their local school districts. Most local taxes are viewed through that lens. Each of these communities had rejected 1A on May 19th. That was a referendum on the state.

Today I exchanged a few emails with State Senate Republican Leader Dennis Hollingsworth. He made it clear he isn't thinking of challenging Congresswoman Mary-Bono-Mack for Congress. Too bad. Sen. Hollingsworth would have been a great Republican alternative to cap and taxer and job costing Obama enabler Congresswoman Mary Bono-Mack.

No word from Ray Haynes, Jim Battin or others. Somebody do it!

Cross posted on RedCounty.