FLASHREPORT

[Cross-posted from RedCounty.com]

Martin Wisckol posted about another, more reasonable campaign diagnosis by political handicapper Allen Hoffenblum: that AD68 represents an opportunity for a Democratic upset in November. 

The GOP nominee is Costa Mesa Councilman Allan Mansoor and the Democratic choice is businessman Phu Nguyen. 

The angle here as that Nguyen's ethnicity and strong fundraising position him to pull off an upset in a district with lots of Vietnamese voters. The termed-out incumbent, Assemblyman Van Tran, is running against Loretta Sanchez in overlapping CD47. His efforts to turn out Vietnamese voters may well benefit Nguyen as an unintentional byproduct. If that is true, it stands to reason Phu Nguyen's efforts to turn out Viet voters will also help Van Tran's candidacy. The underlying presumption here is that blood is thicker than party affiliation - and there is truth to that. 

I'd like to offer some countervailing points. For one thing, the seat has been in Republican hands since 1992, even in banner Democratic years.

You can read the rest of the post here.

My Red County colleague published this post today about the U.S. Senate race -- a must read for those deciding whether to cast their ballot for Chuck DeVore or Carly Fiorina.

Chip's post includes an op-ed Fiorina co-bylined in 2000 in support of Prop. 26 -- which would have have weakened Prop. 13 by reducing the threshold fro passing local school bonds from two-thirds to a simple majority.

Click here to read it. It's substantive food for thought for those trying to parse through the competing claims of who the conservative in the race is.

[Cross-posted from RedCounty.com]

"My research has taken me on a frequently unpredictable, always fascinating, odyssey. Like most good journeys, I did not end up quite where I thought I would, nor did I take the path I thought I might. Where I had anticipated concluding that business must play an ever-growing role if we are to adequately address the education concerns of our nation, I have ended by deciding that although business can and must play a vital role, it also must be necessarily limited. Where I began as a proponent of "States' Rights" in education, I have ended by believing that we will never meet our own expectations of public education unless the federal government is willing to play a consistent, long-term role; unless education truly becomes a matter of national policy, not just a matter of national rhetoric."

These words were written by Carly Fiorina in the introduction to her 1989 doctoral dissertation for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, which came into this blogger's possession a short time ago. Later this afternoon, I will post here at Red County the entire dissertation.

Entitled "The Education Crisis: Business and Government's Role In Reform," the 159-page document lays out the then-34 year-old Fiorina's thoughts on reforming high school education. I haven't finished reading the document, but the intellectual journey of her research paper led her to advocate for what could be characterized as at least a limited federalization of public education - a stance at odds with her self-declared conservatism. Frankly, her words sound like mainstream Democratic education rhetoric.

You can read the rest of this post here.

[Cross-posted from RedCounty.com]

I've learned that Anaheim Councilwoman Lucille Kring visited the OC  Registrar of Voters office earlier this afternoon and pulled papers to run against Democratic incumbent Sen. Lou Correa in the 34th Senate District.

This is bad news for the vulnerable Correa, who was getting tantalizingly close to avoiding a real opponent in what promises to be the worst year for Democrats in a long, long time.

You can read the rest of the post here.

[Cross-posted from RedCounty.com]

Readers may recall that a few months ago we had to toss one of our contributors, Aaron Park, who used this blog to continually flack for the Steve Poizner for Governor campaign, but refused to disclose to readers that he was being paid to do so by the Poizner campaign. Even when given the option of continuing to blog for Red County -- with the proviso that he disclose that he worked for the Poizner campaign when writing about Poizner -- Aaron refused because disclosure would cause the Poizner to cut off their payments.

Recently, Aaron has been trying to rehabilitate himself by waging a dishonest campaign of personal attacks against myself and Chip Hanlon. Lately, he's trying to equate Whitman buying blogads on Red County with his acting as a paid Poizner advocate on Red County without the knowledge of red County or its readers. It's an absurd and untrue comparison...which is why I was surprised that Calbuzz but down hard on Park's bait.

Calbuzz is a blog run by Jerry Roberts and Phil Trounstine, who consider themselves to be veteran journalist and higher forms of life than mere bloggers. Yesterday they Calposted an item essentially regurgitating Parks' claims.

You can read the rest of this post here.

[Cross-posted from RedCounty.com]

Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner is hell-bent on convincing Republican primary voters that he is a real conservative -- which makes the contrast with his assault on insurance companies that may have even indirect investments in Iran all the more jarring, because he is laying the groundwork for social engineering by Democratic successors of the kind that set conservative teeth on edge.

I first reported on this back on December 2, when Poizner was threatening insurance companies to "voluntarily" divest themselves of $12 billion in indirect investments -- and if the didn't volunteer, he'd force them.

As I commented at the time, this reeks of campaign posturing and is the kind of gratuitous, publicity-seeking corporate bashing I would expect from a Democrat:

National security is a job for the federal government, not state insurance commissioners. If policy holders object to the possibility their payments might wind up being indirectly invested in Iran, they can choose an insurance carrier that meets that desire. It's called the free market. This outburst of opportunism undercuts Poizner's "I'm the most conservative" campaign. Attempting to force private companies into adopting a specific political agenda is something best left to Democrats -- they think it is a good thing and like doing it.

At a news conference yesterday, Poizner backed off a bit...but only in practice, not in principle. As the San Francisco Chronicle reported:

Poizner, who is seeking the Republican nomination to be governor, sent a letter to California's insurers Wednesday giving them until March 31 to divest their indirect Iranian investments and agree not to make future investments.

If they do not comply, Poizner said, the department would not give them credit for their investments in these companies. State law requires insurers to keep a certain level of capital in order to be licensed to sell insurance in California.

The issue here is not the nature of the Iranian regime, which is clearly evil. But Poizner's posturing will have zero effect on Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

You can read the rest on RedCounty.com

[Cross-posted from RedCounty.com]

Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner's gubernatorial campaign spent much of last year rubbing up against conservative opinion leaders, trying to shed the skin of his earlier political incarnation as a center-left Republican and convince the rank-and-file that the metamorphosis is genuine.

And doing a pretty good job of it. For example, he's put forward solid budget and economic proposals that would, if adopted, put California on a path to economic growth and stable, balanced budgets.

Unfortunately for Poizner, the past isn't so easily banished: Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell is calling for passage of state Sen. Joe Simitian's state constitutional amendment to lower the threshold for passing parcel taxes from two-thirds to just 55%.

This is exactly the same proposal Poizner pushed as a leader of Taxpayers for School Improvement (along with Simitian) back in 2004. As Poizner said in a debate during his 2004 Assembly race:

"I'm proud to be his partner [Mr. Simitian] on trying to drive down the threshold from 67 percent to 55 percent for local school parcel taxes."

Here's the YouTube video: 

Yes, I realize Poizner has repented of his past political sins and been baptized in the waters of conservatism.

You can read the rest here.

[Cross-posted from RedCounty.com]

As has been reported here and elsewhere, it seems fairly certain that former Congressman and state Senator Tom Campbell will abandon the governor's race and run for U.S. Senate instead.

Query: does it really matter?

In my opinion, the practical result of Campbell's decision is he'll finish third in the U.S. Senate primary instead finishing third in the gubernatorial primary. 2010 is going to be a year of voter discontent and back-lash. An under-funded, mild-mannered economic professor who supported extending last year's massive state tax increase is ill-suited to ride that wave. Campbell's chances largely depend on the unlikelihood of lightning striking his campaign -- and i think he probably stood a better chance of that in the gubernatorial campaign on the off-chance that Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner nuked each each into oblivion à la Al Checchi and Jane Harman in 1998 (with Campbell hoping to reprise the role of Gray Davis).

As for his impact on the U.S. Senate primary, I think Campbell's entry helps Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, the favorite of conservative grass roots. To the extent he picks up voters who have already expressed a preference, I think the moderate Campbell will draw from Carly Fiorina because she is perceived as the moderate in the campaign -- although she is demonstrably to the right of Campbell.

In the end, however, I think Campbell is simply changing his mind about which statewide GOP primary he is going to lose.

You can read the rest of the post here.

[Cross-posted from RedCounty.com]

TheLiberalOC.com reports that Democratic businessman Phu Nguyen is getting into the 68th Assembly District race: 

We recieved the following press announcement that may very well shake up the 68th Assembly District contest this year.

Successful small business owner Phu Nguyen announces bid for 68th Assembly District

You can read the rest of the entry here.

[Cross-posted from RedCounty.com]

Well, that was quick.

On November 5, I posted that Anaheim Republican Sue Perez was going to challenge Democratic Sen. Lou Correa's re-election, with the backing of the state Senate GOP Caucus.

I heard on Sunday that she had decided not to run, after all, and additional calls confirmed that. I don't know the official reason for her exit, but it's my understanding she has some baggage that would prove damaging in mail pieces.

So it's back to the drawing board.

One has to marvel at Sen. Correa good fortune thus far. He's running for re-election in what is shaping up to be a terrible year for Democrats. Democratic voters are disheartened, Republicans are on fire to fight back against the cornucopia of government growth delivered by the Democrats, and independent voters have swung hard against Democratic excess. Correa's record puts him at the epicenter of government dysfunction in California: he authored the legislation creating the 3-at-50 public safety pension benefit, which is now wreaking havoc with local government budgets.

You can read the rest of the post here.

[Cross-posted from RedCounty.com]

Cha-ching.

Steve Poizner, state Insurance Commissioner and software gazillionaire, announced -- or rather his campaign announced -- he will be writing his campaign a really big check: $15 million.

It's good timing. I was chatting with some other politicos of Mike and Susan Schroeder's Christmas party yesterday, and Poizner's spending -- or relative lack thereof -- was one topic of conversation: namely, whether allowing rival Meg Whitman to leverage her fortune to dominate the airwaves was a deliberate strategy, or a reflection of personal parsimony on Poizner's part.

I did see Poizner consultant Steve Franks there at the Schroeders, dropping big hints that "some big news" was going to pop. No word on whether any portion of the $15 million will go to a Cash for Bloggers program.

Barbs aside, I was beginning to wonder when Poizner would hit the airwaves (I'm assuming that's where such a large sum of money will be spent).

You can read the rest at RedCounty.com

Part 2 of my response to the dishonest spin oozing from the Poizner campaign:

To the best of my recollection, I have never met or spoken with Jarrod Agen, spokesman for the Steve Poizner for Governor campaign. Other than a few e-mails this summer, we've had hardly any communication.

If the people running the show there were smart, they'd send Jarrod for a long weekend at a spa, so he can calm down, relax and start thinking straight. I figure maybe it is the stress that is causing him to needlessly pick fights and make things up about this blog.

First there's this doozy Agen peddled to Joe Garofoli at the SF Chronicle:

Yet a few weeks later, Cunningham ran a -- brace yourself for this -- MULTI-PART interview with Meg Whitman. Yes, the political equivalent of a unicorn sighting.

Red County's Matt Cunningham and Steve Poizner talking about the weather.

Agen says this is because Whitman is a major advertiser on the site. Hanlon says that's malarky and that he'll "blow that out of the water" in upcoming days.

Amazing how someone I've hardly communicated with claims to know precisely why I interviewed Meg Whitman. Since Jarrod has no idea what he is talking about, allow me to illuminate.

You can read the rest of this post here.

RedCounty.com CEO Chip Hanlon posted about a discovery he made regarding the Steve Poizner for Governor campaign's approach to our blog, RedCounty.com:

Someone should tell Steve Poizner that Red County would have covered his Gubernatorial campaign for free.

You see, I've recently learned something which, in retrospect, might not come as a complete shock to all our readers given the nature of his content: I have it in writing that the Poizner camp has been secretly paying one of our writers, "Sgt. York," for favorable coverage all year long.

Now, to be fair, the Poizner camp wasn't paying him directly. Instead, they were paying a "consultant," and that person was paying our now-former writer. But it is a fact that the person was paying York explicitly for pro-Poizner, anti-Whitman commentaries, articles specifically to be written on RedCounty.com.

I disclose this publicly here to preserve the credibility of this site and its other hard working writers, and because this is a direct violation of our internal policies; any contributor writing on behalf of a paying client must simply disclose that relationship—not too difficult.

You can read the rest of the post here.