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Supervisor Brad Mitzelfelt

2005 Election: Doner Than Done

O.K., time to stick a fork in this one.  Tuesday’s results in San Bernardino County were a mixed grill of (mostly) road-kill.  The GOP performed on par with other counties in terms of support for the propositions compared with Republican registration.  The County supported Prop. 73 (58%) and Prop. 75 (50.37%).  The rest of the initiatives were defeated.  Low turnout didn’t work in the GOP’s favor this time around, with a 36% total turnout and an unusually low 9.97% absentee voter turnout.  In local races, with the notable exception of the City of San Bernardino (where Republican Chas Kelley missed getting into the runoff), a majority of the Party’s local endorsed candidates won.

Perspective?  Well, you know how sometimes you see a carcass on the highway that’s been so thoroughly flattened you can’t even tell what it was when it walked the earth?  If it’s deader than dead, what’s the point of asking what killed it?  In a way, that’s how I feel about putting this election into perspective.  But I’ll give it a try.  We all know that if the people of California truly wanted reform, they just missed a golden opportunity to get it.  It’s a shame and a setback, but the fact remains that if Sacramento doesn’t change its ways, the day will come when true reforms will pass, even if the unions spend $130 million or more to stop them.  I see two bright spots in the dreary landscape.  First, as Ed Laning pointed out, our opponents had to spend themselves into oblivion.  Second is the lesson learned (maybe) that persuasive voter communications on the "yes" side needed to happen sooner in this election.  A well-respected pollster told me his numbers showed all of the props losing one month out, and that all of them ended up within 3 percent of where the numbers were a month ago.  Interestingly, he said there’s a trend toward voters making up their minds significantly earlier than they used to.  So the late response and last-minute advertising in favor of the initiatives had little impact.  Personally, I’d be interested in hearing more about the meaning and reasons behind the results.  Something good can ultimately come of this cycle if we can learn from it.  Now on the road to June.  But look both ways first.