Datamar has released a report showing the actual election results in several categories up against the last polling done by some of the majors. Interesting compilation for those who like to study this stuff, chew it up, regurgitate it, and spew it out…and probably dream about it as well.
I asked Datamar’s Raul Furlong to comment on the results. Here’s what he had to say:
The election is over and the votes have all been counted — well almost all, and it is time to ask how the pollsters did in testing the voters mood.
Modern political polling has become a big part of candidate and initiative campaigns measuring the sense of the voters and tracking throughout campaigns whether certain ads or messages are working and whether the electorate is coming together in support of a measure, or a candidate, or turning away.
Datamar has been successful in measuring most races. Our polling is based on the concept of keying on high-propensity voters, that is, voters that have consistently voted in past elections, and we expect, will continue to vote in future elections. Past behavior is indicative of future action.
Looking at the results from this past election, we feel confident that we are on the right path and with continued analysis, our product will improve.
Here are the final results in some key elections; Datamar’s final prediction as well as some numbers from other pollsters on these same issues: