[Cross-posted from RedCounty.com]
Martin Wisckol posted about another, more reasonable campaign diagnosis by political handicapper Allen Hoffenblum: that AD68 represents an opportunity for a Democratic upset in November.
The GOP nominee is Costa Mesa Councilman Allan Mansoor and the Democratic choice is businessman Phu Nguyen.
The angle here as that Nguyen’s ethnicity and strong fundraising position him to pull off an upset in a district with lots of Vietnamese voters. The termed-out incumbent, Assemblyman Van Tran, is running against Loretta Sanchez in overlapping CD47. His efforts to turn out Vietnamese voters may well benefit Nguyen as an unintentional byproduct. If that is true, it stands to reason Phu Nguyen’s efforts to turn out Viet voters will also help Van Tran’s candidacy. The underlying presumption here is that blood is thicker than party affiliation – and there is truth to that.
I’d like to offer some countervailing points. For one thing, the seat has been in Republican hands since 1992, even in banner Democratic years.
You can read the rest of the post here.