It might be time for the Washington prognosticators to move CD47 from "leans Democratic" to "toss up."
A new poll of 400 likely voters in CD47 by the American Action Forum has Assemblyman Van Tran with 43% to 45% for Rep.Loretta Sanchez — well within the 4.9% margin of error.
It remains close even when you factor out the "leaners": Sanchez 42%, Van 40%.
There isn’t a lot of good news for Sanchez in this poll.
For example, in response to the question, "Do you think Loretta Sanchez deserves reelection as congresswoman, or do you think it is time to give someone else a chance?", only 35% said Loretta deserves another term, while 57% think it is time for someone else.
62% of CD47 voters think the country is on the wrong track.
Sanchez’ favorable/unfavorable stands at 46%/44% compared to Van’s 26%/18% (although it should be noted Van is less well known in the district).
Sanchez’s votes for the Obama agenda haven’t endeared her to CD47 voters, according to a series of questions as to whether her votes for various elements of Obama’s program make them more or less likely to vote for her.
Bailouts for the auto companies and housing industry: 63% much or somewhat less likely. Her pro-card check stance gets a 58% less likely rating, and her Ethics Committee investigation earns a 56% less likely.
Obviously, this poll doesn’t mean Van Tran has it in the bag — although I believe he is going to win. But it is vindication for those of us who have been saying that 2010 is going to be the toughest re-election fight of Sanchez’ career because she is facing the first serious opponent she has had in more than ten years in the most anti-Democratic climate she’s ever had to run in.
And just a reminder: the grand opening of Van Tran’s Garden Grove headquarters is this Monday at 11:00 a.m.
Who knows? Chances are improving that Loretta will soon have lots of time on her hands to focus on running for Governor in 2014.