Posted by Ron Nehring at 3:57 pm on Aug 29, 2013 Comments Off on Analysis: President Obama Unlikely to Get His Wish of a Democrat House in 2014
President Obama’s strategy is clear: focus on winning control of
the House for Democrats so he can have the unified control of
government he needs to write his legacy in his final two years, as
he did in his first.
Republicans today hold a 17 seat House majority, and a review of
how House races are shaping up suggests the President is unlikely
to get his wish.
To return Nancy Pelosi to the Speaker’s Chair
requires a switch of 17 seats in addition to Democrats holding
every seat they now occupy, including several in California they
barely took from the GOP in 2012. That’s an extraordinarily
steep hill to climb.
The outcome of the 2010 elections on the state level continues
to have a big effect across the country. While most attention
was focused on the Republican takeover of the House that year, less
visible were Republican victories at the state level, seizing
numerous governorships and state legislatures that set the stage
for a 2011 redistricting that was very favorable to the GOP.
Nationally, analyst Charlie Cook rates twice as many Democrat
seats as flippable (24), than Republicans (12). That’s the
reverse of… Read More