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<channel>
	<title>FlashReport &#187; Adam D. Probolsky</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.flashreport.org/blog/author/adam-probolsky/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.flashreport.org/blog</link>
	<description>...on California&#039;s most significant political news...</description>
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		<title>Conservative Party Has Support Among GOP and Conservative DTS Voters</title>
		<link>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/09/06/conservative-party-has-support-among-gop-and-conservative-dts-voters/</link>
		<comments>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/09/06/conservative-party-has-support-among-gop-and-conservative-dts-voters/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Sep 2011 20:30:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam D. Probolsky</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog Posts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.flashreport.org/blog/?p=51162</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[





<p>New polling shows Republican voters oppose party platform
changes that would eliminate the pro-life and traditional marraige
stances and would weaken the party’s position on illegal
immigration.</p>
<p>Sixty-three percent of Republican and conservative Decline to
State voters oppose the party
platform’reforms’.More than58%say
theyapprove of a new party, the Conservative Party, that
would be founded ontraditional
Republicanprincipals.And fifty-percent of
Republican voters would also consider joining a newly formed
Conservative Party in California if that option was available.</p>
<p>While I am not an advocate for the formation of a Conservative
Party, I have heard rumblings about such a movement.These
pollingnumbers clearly indicate that Republican voters want
their party to remain true to it’s conservative roots and that
there is a significant element among Decline to State voters who
self-identify as conservatives and hold similar values.</p>
<p>You can find the link to the full poll report <a href=
"http://www.probolskyresearch.com/conservative-party-would-have-support-in-california/">
here</a>.&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/09/06/conservative-party-has-support-among-gop-and-conservative-dts-voters/'>Read More</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[





<p>New polling shows Republican voters oppose party platform
changes that would eliminate the pro-life and traditional marraige
stances and would weaken the party’s position on illegal
immigration.</p>
<p>Sixty-three percent of Republican and conservative Decline to
State voters oppose the party
platform’reforms’.More than58%say
theyapprove of a new party, the Conservative Party, that
would be founded ontraditional
Republicanprincipals.And fifty-percent of
Republican voters would also consider joining a newly formed
Conservative Party in California if that option was available.</p>
<p>While I am not an advocate for the formation of a Conservative
Party, I have heard rumblings about such a movement.These
pollingnumbers clearly indicate that Republican voters want
their party to remain true to it’s conservative roots and that
there is a significant element among Decline to State voters who
self-identify as conservatives and hold similar values.</p>
<p>You can find the link to the full poll report <a href=
"http://www.probolskyresearch.com/conservative-party-would-have-support-in-california/">
here</a>.&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/09/06/conservative-party-has-support-among-gop-and-conservative-dts-voters/'>Read More</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/09/06/conservative-party-has-support-among-gop-and-conservative-dts-voters/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Romney Leads GOP Primary Field in CA, Perry in Second</title>
		<link>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/08/17/romney-leads-gop-primary-field-in-ca-perry-in-second/</link>
		<comments>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/08/17/romney-leads-gop-primary-field-in-ca-perry-in-second/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Aug 2011 00:15:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam D. Probolsky</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog Posts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bachman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GOP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Perry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Presidential]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Primary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romney]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.flashreport.org/blog/?p=50982</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[





<p>New poll results show Romney winning with 22% and Texas Governor
Rick Perry is showing with 15%. You can see the poll <a href=
"http://probolskyresearch.com/news/68/Romney-Leads-Among-CA-Republicans%2C-Perry-in-Second-Place">
here</a>.</p>
<p>Given that Romney has been campaigning in California for more
than five years and Perry has barely been to the state, Perry seems
to be positioned well. Governor Perry announced in the middle
of fielding the poll.&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/08/17/romney-leads-gop-primary-field-in-ca-perry-in-second/'>Read More</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[





<p>New poll results show Romney winning with 22% and Texas Governor
Rick Perry is showing with 15%. You can see the poll <a href=
"http://probolskyresearch.com/news/68/Romney-Leads-Among-CA-Republicans%2C-Perry-in-Second-Place">
here</a>.</p>
<p>Given that Romney has been campaigning in California for more
than five years and Perry has barely been to the state, Perry seems
to be positioned well. Governor Perry announced in the middle
of fielding the poll.&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/08/17/romney-leads-gop-primary-field-in-ca-perry-in-second/'>Read More</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/08/17/romney-leads-gop-primary-field-in-ca-perry-in-second/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>3</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>San Juan Capistrano Voters Approve Development</title>
		<link>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/06/09/san-juan-capistrano-voters-approve-development/</link>
		<comments>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/06/09/san-juan-capistrano-voters-approve-development/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Jun 2011 18:52:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam D. Probolsky</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog Posts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Powers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[land use]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Juan Capistrano]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.flashreport.org/blog/?p=50114</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[





<p>On Tuesday the voters of San Juan Capistrano went to the polls,
actually only2,000 went to the polls – the other4,700
voted by mail and approved <a href=
"http://www.ocregister.com/opinion/city-301383-property-san.html">Measure
B</a>. B was a referendum on a retail
development,meaning the council hadapproved the project
anda NIMBY citizen groupcollected signatures, got it on
the ballot, andlost -56% of the voter sided with the
council and the developer.</p>
<p>The developer had the help of veteran political consultant
<a href="http://www.eileenpadberg.com/">Eileen Padberg</a>.
But there was also a robust independent expenditure funded by the
<a href=
"http://www.ocar.org/page.php?tut=governmental-affairs&amp;tid=501&amp;pid=5">
Orange CountyAssociation of Realtors (Dave Stefanides)</a> and run
by political consultant <a href=
"http://powers-communications.com/">Brandon Powers</a>.</p>
<p>The campaign stuck to basic messages and they won, which is not
easy in party of South Orange County where development can meet
with strong opposition.&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/06/09/san-juan-capistrano-voters-approve-development/'>Read More</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[





<p>On Tuesday the voters of San Juan Capistrano went to the polls,
actually only2,000 went to the polls – the other4,700
voted by mail and approved <a href=
"http://www.ocregister.com/opinion/city-301383-property-san.html">Measure
B</a>. B was a referendum on a retail
development,meaning the council hadapproved the project
anda NIMBY citizen groupcollected signatures, got it on
the ballot, andlost -56% of the voter sided with the
council and the developer.</p>
<p>The developer had the help of veteran political consultant
<a href="http://www.eileenpadberg.com/">Eileen Padberg</a>.
But there was also a robust independent expenditure funded by the
<a href=
"http://www.ocar.org/page.php?tut=governmental-affairs&amp;tid=501&amp;pid=5">
Orange CountyAssociation of Realtors (Dave Stefanides)</a> and run
by political consultant <a href=
"http://powers-communications.com/">Brandon Powers</a>.</p>
<p>The campaign stuck to basic messages and they won, which is not
easy in party of South Orange County where development can meet
with strong opposition.&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/06/09/san-juan-capistrano-voters-approve-development/'>Read More</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/06/09/san-juan-capistrano-voters-approve-development/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Pringle Elected Chairman of OCTax</title>
		<link>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/03/01/pringle-elected-chairman-of-octax-63/</link>
		<comments>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/03/01/pringle-elected-chairman-of-octax-63/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Mar 2011 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam D. Probolsky</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog Posts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.flashreport.org/blog?p=10750</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[





<p>Former Assembly Speaker, Anaheim Mayor and current High Speed
Rail Authority Chairman Curt Pringle was elected to head the Orange
County Taxpayers Association this week.</p>
<p>OCTax is known for working with local government to improve tax
policy andwork better with the business community. They
also have a PAC that endorses and contributes to pro-business and
anti-tax candidates.</p>
<p>In recent years the group has brought on higher profile leaders
to serve on the board including former CA Housing and Community
Development Director and current OC Business Council CEO Lucy Dunn
and Cox Communications Government Affairs executive Jim Leach.</p>
<p>OCTax’s mission is to insure that taxes and tax supported
programs are fair, understandable, cost effective and good for the
economy.</p>
<p>OCTax is one of those endorsements you want to collect and
feature in your voter contact if you can. The group has
positive name ID and especially now, when voters are so peeved over
the failed state of government budgets, OCTax’s stamp of approval
is helpful to have. Organization president Reed Royalty has
been around a long time and has the respect of most&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/03/01/pringle-elected-chairman-of-octax-63/'>Read More</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[





<p>Former Assembly Speaker, Anaheim Mayor and current High Speed
Rail Authority Chairman Curt Pringle was elected to head the Orange
County Taxpayers Association this week.</p>
<p>OCTax is known for working with local government to improve tax
policy andwork better with the business community. They
also have a PAC that endorses and contributes to pro-business and
anti-tax candidates.</p>
<p>In recent years the group has brought on higher profile leaders
to serve on the board including former CA Housing and Community
Development Director and current OC Business Council CEO Lucy Dunn
and Cox Communications Government Affairs executive Jim Leach.</p>
<p>OCTax’s mission is to insure that taxes and tax supported
programs are fair, understandable, cost effective and good for the
economy.</p>
<p>OCTax is one of those endorsements you want to collect and
feature in your voter contact if you can. The group has
positive name ID and especially now, when voters are so peeved over
the failed state of government budgets, OCTax’s stamp of approval
is helpful to have. Organization president Reed Royalty has
been around a long time and has the respect of most&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/03/01/pringle-elected-chairman-of-octax-63/'>Read More</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/03/01/pringle-elected-chairman-of-octax-63/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>My Take On Selling School sites</title>
		<link>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/01/06/my-take-on-selling-school-sites/</link>
		<comments>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/01/06/my-take-on-selling-school-sites/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Jan 2011 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam D. Probolsky</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog Posts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.flashreport.org/blog?p=10587</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[





<p>School Districts across the state deem unused school sites
"surplus" and sell them off to private developers. This
practice is largely a bad idea. Just because a community’s
demographics have shifted to an older population does not mean that
young families will never return. And there is no
re-capturing acreage that was once a school and becomes
single-family homes.</p>
<p>In fact, if the school district needs a new school site in a
dozen years from now, it is highly likely that they will be forced
to go to the taxpayers for the money through the sale of bonds or
increased property taxes like a parcel tax.</p>
<p>I my home town of Irvine the school district is on the verge of
selling off two neighborhood schools. This school district is
always crying poor. Even worse, they may be looking to use
loopholes in state law to spend the proceeds of the sale to fund
operations.</p>
<p>You can check out my column on the subject in today’s Orange
County Register <a href=
"http://www.ocregister.com/news/school-282981-irvine-district.html">
here.</a>&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/01/06/my-take-on-selling-school-sites/'>Read More</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[





<p>School Districts across the state deem unused school sites
"surplus" and sell them off to private developers. This
practice is largely a bad idea. Just because a community’s
demographics have shifted to an older population does not mean that
young families will never return. And there is no
re-capturing acreage that was once a school and becomes
single-family homes.</p>
<p>In fact, if the school district needs a new school site in a
dozen years from now, it is highly likely that they will be forced
to go to the taxpayers for the money through the sale of bonds or
increased property taxes like a parcel tax.</p>
<p>I my home town of Irvine the school district is on the verge of
selling off two neighborhood schools. This school district is
always crying poor. Even worse, they may be looking to use
loopholes in state law to spend the proceeds of the sale to fund
operations.</p>
<p>You can check out my column on the subject in today’s Orange
County Register <a href=
"http://www.ocregister.com/news/school-282981-irvine-district.html">
here.</a>&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/01/06/my-take-on-selling-school-sites/'>Read More</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2011/01/06/my-take-on-selling-school-sites/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Recounts in OC &#8211; Day One</title>
		<link>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2010/12/13/recounts-in-oc-day-one/</link>
		<comments>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2010/12/13/recounts-in-oc-day-one/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Dec 2010 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam D. Probolsky</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog Posts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.flashreport.org/blog?p=10550</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[





<p>There are two recounts in progress in OC.</p>
<p>One was initiated by a Fullerton planning commissioner Doug
Chaffee, a Democrat who was down 90 votes in the certified results.
After today, he is now down 91 votes. Maybe he’ll give tomorrow a
try again, but with loosing a vote, I can’t imagine he’d want to
keep paying to loose ground.</p>
<p>The other recount was started by Constantine “Dean” Zarkos,
appointed Los Alamitos Councilmember who is down 20 votes. Not much
to report there. I wish Zarkos had won. But it is very hard to make
big swings in votes on recounts – especially in such a well run
shop as OC Registrar Neal Kelley runs.</p>
<p>Political attorney Steve Baric is working for both McKinley, who
is ahead of Chaffee in Fullerton and for Zarkos. Also on hand today
at the Registrar were McKinley consultant Dave Ellis and GOP
staffer George Andrews.&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2010/12/13/recounts-in-oc-day-one/'>Read More</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[





<p>There are two recounts in progress in OC.</p>
<p>One was initiated by a Fullerton planning commissioner Doug
Chaffee, a Democrat who was down 90 votes in the certified results.
After today, he is now down 91 votes. Maybe he’ll give tomorrow a
try again, but with loosing a vote, I can’t imagine he’d want to
keep paying to loose ground.</p>
<p>The other recount was started by Constantine “Dean” Zarkos,
appointed Los Alamitos Councilmember who is down 20 votes. Not much
to report there. I wish Zarkos had won. But it is very hard to make
big swings in votes on recounts – especially in such a well run
shop as OC Registrar Neal Kelley runs.</p>
<p>Political attorney Steve Baric is working for both McKinley, who
is ahead of Chaffee in Fullerton and for Zarkos. Also on hand today
at the Registrar were McKinley consultant Dave Ellis and GOP
staffer George Andrews.&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2010/12/13/recounts-in-oc-day-one/'>Read More</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2010/12/13/recounts-in-oc-day-one/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Voters: Robo Calls Annoying, No Surprise</title>
		<link>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2010/10/08/voters-robo-calls-annoying-no-surprise/</link>
		<comments>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2010/10/08/voters-robo-calls-annoying-no-surprise/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Oct 2010 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam D. Probolsky</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog Posts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.flashreport.org/blog?p=10414</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[





<p>As part of our regular survey of CA voters we often ask
questions that others do not. This time we asked about how
voters feel about robo calls. No surprise, they hate
them.</p>
<p>Please do not mistake my research for my own opinion
though. I support the use of robo calls (although never in
the practice of conducting legitamate research) for
campaigns. They are cheap and especially in response to a
late hit, they can be very effective.</p>
<p>However most voters say they don’t even listen to the calls.</p>
<p>Our poll, which can be <a href=
"http://probolskyresearch.com/news">found here</a> shows that 82%
of likely voters say they find the calls annoying and a full 66%
say they never listen to them.</p>
<p>Not listening can be a missleading answer. If a call opens
with "Hi, this is Meg Whitman…" and then the voter hangs up or
deletes the message,at least the impression of Meg calling
has been made whether they hear the rest of her message or not.</p>
<p>This leads to an important tactical edict for robo calls: Put
the candidates names at the begining of the call. Even if
you’ve got Bill Clinton calling for&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2010/10/08/voters-robo-calls-annoying-no-surprise/'>Read More</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[





<p>As part of our regular survey of CA voters we often ask
questions that others do not. This time we asked about how
voters feel about robo calls. No surprise, they hate
them.</p>
<p>Please do not mistake my research for my own opinion
though. I support the use of robo calls (although never in
the practice of conducting legitamate research) for
campaigns. They are cheap and especially in response to a
late hit, they can be very effective.</p>
<p>However most voters say they don’t even listen to the calls.</p>
<p>Our poll, which can be <a href=
"http://probolskyresearch.com/news">found here</a> shows that 82%
of likely voters say they find the calls annoying and a full 66%
say they never listen to them.</p>
<p>Not listening can be a missleading answer. If a call opens
with "Hi, this is Meg Whitman…" and then the voter hangs up or
deletes the message,at least the impression of Meg calling
has been made whether they hear the rest of her message or not.</p>
<p>This leads to an important tactical edict for robo calls: Put
the candidates names at the begining of the call. Even if
you’ve got Bill Clinton calling for&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2010/10/08/voters-robo-calls-annoying-no-surprise/'>Read More</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2010/10/08/voters-robo-calls-annoying-no-surprise/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>You Can&#8217;t Be Mayor Pro Tem Any More!</title>
		<link>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2010/09/17/you-cant-be-mayor-pro-tem-any-more/</link>
		<comments>http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2010/09/17/you-cant-be-mayor-pro-tem-any-more/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Sep 2010 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam D. Probolsky</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog Posts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.flashreport.org/blog?p=10359</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[





<p>I can think of no more worthless title than Mayor Pro Tem.
I know some city council members covet the position and proudly
display it on their business cards. And I have even heard
council members correct me when introducing them: "Well, actually I
am Mayor Pro Tem." The same goes for vice-chairman and
vice-president of a commission or school board.</p>
<p>So it is highly amusing that someone actually went to court over
the title of vice president of the Bethel School District.
The case is detailed in this month’s <a href=
"http://www.cllaw.us/newsletters/2010%20Summer.pdf">Colantuno &amp;
Levine, PC newsletter.</a></p>
<p>Basically Blair was vice president of the school board and spoke
out against the superintendent. His board colleagues stripped
him of his veep title and he sued. He lost.</p>
<p>The 9th Circuit Court reasoned that the public expects elected
officials to be openly partisan.&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2010/09/17/you-cant-be-mayor-pro-tem-any-more/'>Read More</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[





<p>I can think of no more worthless title than Mayor Pro Tem.
I know some city council members covet the position and proudly
display it on their business cards. And I have even heard
council members correct me when introducing them: "Well, actually I
am Mayor Pro Tem." The same goes for vice-chairman and
vice-president of a commission or school board.</p>
<p>So it is highly amusing that someone actually went to court over
the title of vice president of the Bethel School District.
The case is detailed in this month’s <a href=
"http://www.cllaw.us/newsletters/2010%20Summer.pdf">Colantuno &amp;
Levine, PC newsletter.</a></p>
<p>Basically Blair was vice president of the school board and spoke
out against the superintendent. His board colleagues stripped
him of his veep title and he sued. He lost.</p>
<p>The 9th Circuit Court reasoned that the public expects elected
officials to be openly partisan.&hellip; <a href='http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2010/09/17/you-cant-be-mayor-pro-tem-any-more/'>Read More</a></p>]]></content:encoded>
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