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FlashReport Weblog on California Politics

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Fielding More Questions

OK, here’s my take on the Field Poll.

First, let’s put aside the emotions. We all know that Republicans love to hate the Field’s findings — the joke being that F-I-E-L-D stands for “Findings InEvitably Lean Democratic”.

But if you’re mad now, just wait until the LA Times comes out with its poll, which should be any day now. You know how much they love the guv (even though, to the Times’ credit, it’s seen the light and endorsed Props 74 and 77).

In this survey’s case, what bothers me is whether Field understands the effect that Arnold has on his own party. One stat, in particular, jumped out at me:

“Among Republicans, 51% say the Governor’s endorsement of an initiative makes them more inclined to vote, 12% are more inclined to vote no, and 37% say it would have no effect or have no opinion.”

So let’s get this straight: only half of Republicans surveyed are moved by Arnold’s message, the other half either are turned off or have tuned out? Meaning, basically, that Republicans are ambivalent toward their governor?

That… Read More

Jon Fleischman

Dubunking the Field Poll

FIELD POLL SKEWED TO THE LEFT I spoke last week on this commentary page about the insatiable appetite that the media has for these last-minute polls. Today there are many stores on the release of the "Field Poll." Let me start by reminding everyone that in order to accurately poll the electorate, you need to be able to figure out WHO IS GOING TO VOTE so that you can try to poll a REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE in order to be accurate. I haven’t found anyone yet who can tell me with any degree of certainty who it is that is going to turn out for this Special Election. There are so many different factors at play, from voter fatigue to trying to analyze which interests will mobilize for particular measures. So, before you get all concerned about these latest polling stories, remember this admonision.

Relative to the Field Poll itself, I would share these keen observations from a friend and expert on California politics… [I won’t cite him by name because I don’t know if he wants theRead More

Mike Spence

NEWS FLASH!! Governor Appoints Republicans as LA County Judges

Shocking news from the Schwarzenegger Administration.4 of the5 appointments announced for the Los Angeles County Superior Court are actually registered Republicans. See thepress release here.Amazing.Since the Governor has been making appointments in Los Angeles County they have been dominated by Democrats.A complaint I have made often to anyone who will listen.

Just to throw me off, the Gov did appoint a Democrat in Riverside County to the bench at the same time. I guess there aren’t any Republican attorneys in one of the fastest growing Republican areas of the state.… Read More

Supervisor Brad Mitzelfelt

Arnold ‘Treats’ San Bernardino Volunteers

RANCHO CUCAMONGA — It may be Halloween, but that guy in the Arnold Schwarzenegger suitwho just left the local GOP Headquarters actually wasn’t trick-or-treating. Arnold stopped by to thank San Bernardino Countyvolunteers for their hard work and to highlight the strong role grassroots volunteers are playing in the special election. State SenatorBob Duttonand Second District County Supervisor and Central Committee Vice-Chairman Paul Biane gave the chief executive a tour of the operation. The Governor observed 45 volunteers preparing precinct kits and making phone calls to High Desert and Inland Valley voters with messages supporting the Governor’s initiatives. He showed particular interest in the precinct maps, which depict the Party’s 400 precinct captains throughout the vast, 22,000 square-mile county. He also inspected walksheets, scripts, and mail pieces. And helistened to some of the volunteers making advocacy calls on his behalf, while trying not to distract the… Read More

Jon Fleischman

Insider Look at Fundraising!

MOTHER’S MILK New Column I’m pleased to announce that the FlashReport has a new featured columnist — "MOTHER." Mother is the pen-name for our new correspondence who will be bringing us regular updates on the goings-on in the world of political fundraising in California. I encourage you to read her first column today in the FlashReport. At the bottom of the column is a link in case you have insight, gossip, or little-known exploits or exploitations in California political fundraising that you want to share with Mom.

NEW PROP. 75 AD – Check it out below! Loyal FR reader Don Ringe happens to be the media consultant for the Paycheck Protection Campaign — and sent along to me a copy of the new ad they have starting today. Want to watch it? It is attached to the bottom of today’s… Read More

Jon Fleischman

Inclusive Ray: He endorses ALL candidates.

[UPDATE: A friend has jogged my faulty memory. While Ray, did, in fact endorse all of the candidates below, the ORDER of endorsement was as follows: DEVORE (where he should have stopped), then CRISTICH, then ZIPPI, then WAGNER. So we should be watching Dale’s website to see if there is a pattern… Flash]

Hmmm. From reading Mike Spence’s post just below this one, it appears Ray Haynes ‘dual endorsed’ both Joel Anderson AND Debbie Byer in the GOP Primary for the 77th AD… WAIT! There is a moderate Republican running in that primary, too, right? Jack Dale of Santee, I believe.

I think that someone should go check and see if Ray endorsed Dale FIRST.

You see, in the 70th Assembly District where I live, there was a very contentious primary for the GOP Assembly nomination. One of the candidates in that primary, Cristi Cristich, ran for the office with a record of having hosted and… Read More

Mike Spence

Haynes Reveals Who he Loves the Most

Last timeI wrote about the confusion wrought by conflicting press releases, endorsements and dinner invites involving conservative assemblyman Ray Haynes and candidates for the 77th Assembly District. Joel Anderson and Debbie Beyer.

I have heard from both campaigns and from Ray Haynes. Here was Ray’s response:

Debbie Beyer is Jay La Seur’s candidate. He asked for my endorsement.Joel is a great conservative.

I dual-endorsed because I am tired of conservatives eating each other alive, and trying to use the endorsement wars to accomplish that. Both are great conservatives, both should work out who should run. My endorsement shouldn’t determine that outcome.

As for the fundraiser, Debbie didn’t ask me before she used my name, but since I did endorse, I didn’t complain

Good Enough?Read More

Jason Cabel Roe

What To Do About Immigration?

Anyone that pays scant attention to politics still knows that immigration is percolating below the surface – even in non-border states. The influx of illegal immigrants, particularly post-9/11, has frustrated Americans of every political party and polling shows that there is very little daylight among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents on the issue.

A great indicator of how powerful this issue has become was the Democrat governors of Arizona and New Mexico declaring a state of emergency in their states about illegal immigration while the Democrat Speaker of the California Assembly urged Governor Schwarzenegger to follow suit. Since 1994’s Proposition 187, Democrats have used immigration to demagogue – and it says something that they are now using for their own political benefit.

The challenge however is what to do. Since Prop. 187, little has been done on the issue at the federal or state level and President Bush failed miserably in his proposal which isRead More

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