FLASHREPORT

Escape from Pelosi Island

Democratic Rep. Ellen Tauscher has had enough. The California stockbroker spent a dozen years in Congress but never penetrated the glass ceiling liberals in that body built against moderates rising to leadership positions. For years she tangled with fellow Bay Area Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, now the House Speaker. Ms. Tauscher's decision to leave the House yesterday for a top job at the State Department wasn't all that surprising.

Her departure sets off an intense scramble to fill her House seat, which stretches from Walnut Creek in the tony suburbs of Contra Costa County to portions of Sacramento County.

At first glance, the seat would appear to be safe for any Democrat. Barack Obama carried the district with 65% of the vote and it routinely provides majorities for Democratic candidates running statewide. Two of Contra Costa's top Democrats, Assemblyman Tom Torlakson and state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier, are already positioning themselves for the race since neither would have to leave his current office to run in a special election.

But Republicans insist the district in winnable should the Obama administration's popularity continue to wane. In a typically low-turnout special election, the GOP could be especially helped if local voters are strongly motivated to send a message to Washington. Handicappers also note that the district gave GOP Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger a 16-point win in his 2006 re-election race and that Proposition 8, which barred gay marriage, won 46% of the vote in the district last November.

Former GOP Assemblywoman Lynne Leach told me she isn't interested in running but said that Tom Del Beccaro, who is vice chair of the state's Republican Party, would be a strong candidate. Catherine Moy, a city council member in Fairfield, could also expect strong support in the Solano County portion of the district. But perhaps the most intriguing potential candidate would be Warren Rupf, who has been elected Contra Costa sheriff four times. A 40-year veteran of the sheriff's department, he has a good-government image and would be a formidable contender.

The election is likely to be held in August or September, depending on when Ms. Tauscher is confirmed by the Senate as the State Department's new top arms control negotiator. The outcome may hinge on whether Democrats have a divisive primary and if Republicans can coalesce behind a single candidate.

-- John Fund