FLASHREPORT

Jim Lacy, a slatemaker, released some polling data today that suggests OC Supervisor Chris Norby is winning the race for AD 72 in the November Special Election.  And at first glance you might think the results have some relevance.  But take another look:

The poll he contracted for only surveys Republican voters

Special Elections in California are not governed by typical Primary Election rules that exclude cross-party voting.  Therefore the Lacy poll is way off base and has little relevance in the grand scheme of electing someone to replace Duvall.  Leaving out Democratic and Decline to State voters and even third-party members who represent a small portion of the electorate, totally and unforgivingly skews the results to meaninglessness.

Moreover, the poll fails to select any turnout model even just among the Republican voters surveyed.  So in a low turnout Special Election where (you pick a number 20%, 30%, 19% 34%) will actually cast a ballot, the Lacy poll chooses to survey everyone who happens to be registered to the GOP regardless of their voting history.  If you believe the Lacy poll, 90% of Republican voters will turnout in this election.

The poll points out that Ackerman supporter Royce has more pull with GOP voters than Norby supporter McClintock

The poll demonstrates that Rep. Ed Royce's support for Linda Ackerman is likely to trump Norby's support by Rep. Tom McClintock among GOP voters.

Those who say they are not voting - still get a vote

In the most fascinating twist, question six of the poll asks whether voters plan on voting.  The humor happens when the eight percent of people who say no, they will not be voting, still get asked the subsequent ballot test question and are allowed to the skew the results further by choosing a candidate they will never actually vote for.

It gives me no pleasure ripping the work of a professional pollsters with CA experience.  Fortunately for me one doesn't exist here.  Lacy is a direct mail guy who contracted with a call center in Utah to produce a report for him.  I don't questions that the calls were made, just that the methodology is fatally flawed.

In the interest of full disclosure for those who do not know, I have close ties to the Ackerman Family, have been a big fan of Linda's for years and am working closely with the campaign both as a pollster and as a volunteer.