FLASHREPORT

TEN THOUGHTS ON THE 2008 ELECTIONS AND THE FUTURE OF THE GOP

Chris Wilson, President of Wilson Research Strategies

Ten thoughts about the 2008 elections and the future of the GOP based on Wilson Research Strategies’ election night poll and post-election analysis.

1)    This was a winnable race after the convention. Failure on the economy cost McCain and Republicans.

It is easy to forget because the Presidential race seemed to be over about a month before any votes were cast, but coming out of the conventions the McCain campaign had a real chance to win.

Coming out of the DNC Senator Obama had only an eight-point lead in Gallup’s nightly tracking, a relatively small convention “bounce”.  After a very well handled RNC, McCain had moved to a six-point lead.  While this was a “bounce” as well, it does indicate how close and winnable the race was at that point.

2)    We didn’t put the mistakes of the past behind us well enough and McCain wound up tied to them.

The most reported fact of this election was that George W. Bush was unpopular.  By Election Day two-thirds of Americans (66%) disapproved of the job he was doing as President.  For a while in the campaign, it appeared that McCain would be able to separate himself from Bush’s legacy.  But, according to the exit polls, as many Americans thought McCain would continue Bush’s policies as thought he would do something different—McCain’s embrace of the Bush solution on the financial crisis hurt him here as did his defense of the Iraq War even after it had stopped being a major issue for voters.

3)    McCain’s failures on the economy killed him.  A floundering embrace of a big government solution only hastened his demise.

By Election Day an overwhelming 63% of voters said the economy was the most important issue to them, yet McCain never found a message on this dominant campaign issue.  When he did try to take a stance on the economy, McCain floundered in trying to lead on the bailout.  Not only was the bailout unpopular (51% of voters disapproved of it versus only 31% who approved according to a CBS News poll), but even worse, McCain looked ineffective by “suspending” his campaign to rush back to D.C. to help pass the bailout bill only to see it fail.

4)    McCain failed to draw a distinction of fundamental ideological vision with Obama.

Part of the reason that McCain was never able to gain traction against Obama outside of the period immediately around the RNC is that he never presented a clear vision of what a McCain presidency would do or why it would be different than an Obama presidency. 

The McCain campaign focused on Obama’s “dangerous friends” rather than his dangerous policies. 

As a result, just 40% of voters saw Obama’s ideology as “too liberal”, the lowest for a Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1996.

5)    “Go Negative” is not a winning strategy in and of itself. We have to give voters a reason to vote for us.

While McCain’s negative barrage at the end had a marginal effect on late deciders he only won voters who made up their minds in the last week by a few points.  Obama won those who decided in September and October by double digits. 

This is a pattern we saw in 2006 as well where Republican late attacks moved votes, but not enough to make up the ground Republican candidates had lost earlier in the campaign by not offering compelling narratives for their own candidacies.

6)    At the Congressional level a bad year was made worse by bad apples, poor candidates, and out-of-touch incumbents.

After two cycles of losing seats Republicans never should have lost due to scandals, candidates being out of touch with their districts, or candidates not doing anything to heal the wounds of divisive primaries it is clear that we need to:

•  Encourage our incumbents to be more district-focused by maintaining a strong in-district presence and by ensuring that Republican institutions in their districts are robust and united behind them.

•  Stay out of trouble.

7)    America remains a center-right country: when Republicans stick to conservative principles we win.

Despite what the press and left-wing commentators are trying to peddle, there is no evidence from this election that the electorate shifted ideologically.  Far more Americans consider themselves conservative than consider themselves liberal and those numbers are basically unchanged from 2004. 

Even more tellingly, where conservative issues were on the ballot (a good indicator of the country’s sentiment because initiatives don’t have an “R” after them), those issues won.

8)    On key issues a conservative position still wins.  We don’t need to abandon our principles; we need to stand by them.

In our election night poll we tested conservative positioning on four issues including climate change, drilling, the economy, and social issues.  On each of these the conservative position beats the liberal position by a significant margin.

Americans agree with conservatives on issues, particularly when we make clear and powerful statements of principle—it is when we get away from our principles or don’t speak compellingly about them that we lose elections.

9)    We have to get “out of Iraq” and have bigger vision. As long as we are arguing about Iraq, we are losing.

While the domestic positions we tested were winners, our election night testing showed a position that includes a defense of Iraq loses to a position that includes pulling-out of Iraq regardless of what else we say in the conservative position.  The Iraq War is now the singular touchstone legacy of the Bush Administration and it is unlikely we can successfully defend it.  What we need to be doing instead is drawing a contrast on a broader vision of America’s place in the world that shows voters how we will keep them safe and America strong.

10)   In the long term we need a “50 State Strategy” not a “50% + 1 Strategy”.

One of the most chilling data observations from the last two elections is the success of Democrats in executing a strategy that expands the map to areas Republicans were unprepared to compete effectively. 

McCain performed reasonably well in the traditional “swing states”, but Obama made that meaningless by winning the Mountain West and Border South states—areas that had not been part of the competitive battlefield in 2000 or 2004. 

This graphically illustrates the risk of the traditional GOP 50%+1 strategy.  Further, it leads to weakened Republican institutions and a lack of preparation to campaign on an expanded map.  The same weak institutions and lack of preparation are why we have seen continuing Democratic gains in these areas. 

If Republicans are going to be successful as a Party we must make a strategic commitment to build infrastructure and recruit compelling candidates in all 50 states and in all races. 

In particular, we must now understand that in addition to the Midwestern and Rust Belt states that have been traditional battlegrounds we must have a compelling message for voters in the Border South and Mountain West states.

Epilogue:   Learn these lessons and the future is bright

We can make back this ground.  Fifteen Democratic Senate seats will be up in 2010, including potentially vulnerable incumbents in Arkansas, California, Colorado, and North Dakota.  The next two elections will also see Democrats defend more Governors seats—21 to Republicans’ 16. Many Democratic governors will be term-limited in 2010, making for 11 open seat races out of 21, many in traditionally Republican states like Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Wyoming.

Since World War II, the out-party has gained an average of 23 seats in the House and two in the Senate in a new president's first midterm election.

With only two exceptions—FDR and George W. Bush—no president has gained seats in his first midterm election in both chambers.

Since 1966, the incumbent party has lost an average of 63 state senate and 262 state house seats, and six governorships, in a president's first midterm election.

Looking even further ahead, If the 2008 election had been held under post-2010 Census apportionments, John McCain would cut Obama’s victory margin from 365-173 to 358-180. The next GOP nominee in 2012 may receive a built-in boost of 7 electoral votes just from changing demographics.

Republicans should rebound in 2010 and 2012–but it’s up to us to learn from the lessons of 2006 and 2008 and position our party for victory.
__________________________________________________