FLASHREPORT

WHAT ARNOLD MUST DO TO WIN THE DEBATE

By Rob Stutzman, former Deputy Chief of Staff for Communications for Governor Schwarzenegger

[This exclusive column by former Schwarzenegger spokesman Rob Stutzman is one part of a dueling feature with the "Democratic consultant insider" website, California Majority Report.  - NR]

It’s difficult to resist being glib about the question of “How does Arnold win the debate?”

Show up.

Smile.

Let Phil talk a lot.

I’m not trying to be smart or sarcastic, but that just about sums it up.

Last time Arnold Schwarzenegger was facing a political candidate debate it was 2003 and he was sharing the stage with Cruz Bustamante, Arianna Huffington, Peter Camejo and Tom McClintock.

Californians were finally going to see if the “Terminator” could perform in a conventional political theater setting.  He did.  He may not have been the hands down winner in the joust between all the bodies on the stage that night, but he beat the opponent he had to beat.  He beat expectations.

Saturday night it’s not Schwarzenegger but rather Angelides who must beat the expectations monster. 

Schwarzenegger must simply not have a gaffe.  He will stay disciplined, avoid appearing partisan and will likely use the debate as a platform to continue his efforts this week to broaden his political momentum to include pushing for passage of the infrastructure bond package.

The Governor is now seasoned at being at the state’s helm.  He’s comfortable with the issues.  He has a command of California’s complicated spending formulas.  He knows his way around most any policy question.

Best of all, he projects leadership and has demonstrated that he can train his ear to the whims of a fickle electorate. 

For Angelides, being contrasted to the governor is a blessing and a curse.  The blessing is that the expectations for Phil are very low entering this debate.  The curse is that the potential for him to score a victory by exceeding the low expectations is virtually nil.

For Phil to win he must throw a haymaker that’s not in his arsenal of weapons.   He’ll be on stage against a man that made is fame by standing before crowds in a bikini flexing his muscles until he psyched out his opponents.  Phil can look smart, be articulate, self-deprecating and even wear Armani but there’s no way he wins this pose-off against Mr. Universe.

So if you’re Phil, one has to assume that maybe he’s smart enough to figure this out.  If so, he’ll be mightily tempted to do something desperate.  Will he recite from the transcripts of more recordings from the governor’s office that his campaign downloaded from the governor’s website and admittedly furnished to the LA Times?  Will he make a wild accusation regarding contributions and/or financial dealings?  Maybe he will - again - use Bob Mulholland to make outrageous personal attacks.

We know from history that California has never seen a sleazier campaigner than Angelides.  Garry South hates him for what he tried to do to Gray Davis.  David Roberti is too much of a gentleman to publicly rip for him for the sleazy attack Phil once launched on him.   He paid Mulholland to peddle sleaze against Bruce Herschensohn.

I’m predicting we see a desperate Phil Angelides on Saturday night.  His life’s ambition is not only coming to a spectacularly disastrous conclusion, but he’s flirting with going down in history as cratering his entire party in Blue California in what should be a big Democrat year.  He’s entering territory where he’ll be a punchline forever.

That’s enough to make a man desperate.  I think this debate will be uneventful until Angelides makes some desperate lunge.  It will backfire (as desperation often does) and catapult him one step closer to becoming a verb.  Twenty years from now we might be describing bad campaigns and candidates as “Angelidesing.”

Expectations won’t be beat on this night.

Rob Stutzman is a principal of Navigators.

Mr. Stutzman, the former Deputy Chief of Staff for Communications for California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, has been perched on what PR Week described as his “front row seat in politics” throughout California’s recent tumultuous political history.

From Arnold’s first night of the historic recall campaign at the Tonight Show to the Schwarzenegger re-elect campaign, he was at the side of California’s world famous Governor.  One of California’s most quoted political operatives; he served as an advisor to the Governor’s campaign.

He was a founding partner of CommandFocus, a Sacramento based communications firm.  Prior to CommandFocus he operated a consulting venture which managed statewide campaigns and pioneered the use of internet communications for volunteer and campaign management efforts.  In addition, he served as Communications Director for Attorney General Dan Lungren and worked in the Office of the Minority Leader in the California State Senate.

He is a frequent writer and speaker in the public policy and political arena.  He has a bachelor’s degree in philosophy from Point Loma Nazarene College in San Diego.