Big congratulations to Sacto based political consultant Tab Berg for his win with retired Marine Colonel/Town of Yucca Valley Mayor Paul Cook in the GOP Primary for the 65th AD.

I was Cook’s pollster and have been proud to work for Col. Cook–a true American Hero.

A funny piece of full disclosure–before signing on to do the polling for Cook I had made a financial contribution to one of Cook’s opponents–Jim Ayres. It was at the urging of a friend, I had never met San Jacinto Councilman Ayres.

So while I am confident my polling was good and accurate and helped Tab develop strategy and targeting, I guess you could say Cook won despite me.

Note: I disclosed my contribution to the Cook campaign before being hired and we agreed it didn’t make a difference and it didn’t.… Read More

I’ve checked the parking lot a few times today at Richvale Elementary and NOBODY is showing up to vote. I’m very concerned that Nor Cal voters are not engaged. Phil and Steve are boring my voters to death! Oh, wait a minute……. er, I forgot, Richvale, Pop. 250,is now entirely a mail-in precinct as its not populated enough. Oh well,SNL’sGilda RadnerwouldhaveEmilyLitella say"Never mind!"… Read More

The RNC sent out a blast email this afternoon taking credit for CD 50. I’ll leave it to the folks on the ground in this district to comment on how effective the RNC has been in helping Bilbray win tonight (I’m assuming he wins). Interestingly, the RNC doesn’t take credit for Busby’s major gaffe of saying people without papers can vote, which is probably the real reason she’s going to lose tonight. In my experience, the RNC has never understood California politics. But again, I leave it to the experts like our own Duane Dichiara and Phil Paule to comment.

“Although the political climate has been unfavorable, the RNC working in tandem with the NRCC has effectively implemented the strategy and resources necessary for Republicans to keep pace with a highly motivated Democrat base. Specifically, the RNC’s implementation of the 72-hour program and the NRCC’s significant investment of resources, have made a discernable impact on the elections and are producing tangible results”

Among other things the RNC takes credit for:

• RNC has organized the deployment of 160 volunteers who are now on the ground in Southern California.

•… Read More

Boating Day!

Er, uh, I mean, Voting Day! But I went boating instead along the Sacramento River with some oppo researchers who are near and dear to my heart, since I already cast my absentee ballot last week.And because thiselection is so utterly boring.

Greg Lucas, who reports for the San Francisco Chronicle, has this to say on the SF Chron blog about absentee ballots.

How low can we go? Absentee ballot returns down The prediction is for a record low turnout today, and judging from the return of absentee ballots so far that forecast may turn out to be dead on.

Though Monday, 4.3 million voters received absentee ballots — nearly 29 percent of California’s 15 million eligible voters. More than 2.6 million voters received ballots automatically by asking their county to designate them permanent absentee voters.

In some counties, more than half the eligible voters received ballots in the mail. Sonoma County mailed ballots to 55 percent of its voters. Alameda mailed to 41 percent of its voters. San Francisco 32 percent.

However return rates have been low.

Statewide,… Read More

There are loads of hot races here in Orange County, and with our 21st Century Registrar of Voters doing his utmost to feed our appetite for results it shouldn’t be too late an election night (barring another Diane Harkey/Tom Harman-esque squeaker).

I’m running the traditional predictions contest on OC Blog, but I’ll post my own prognostications on the competitive races here:

2nd Supervisor District: OC Treasurer John Moorlach trounces government union proxy Dave Shawver by 20 points.

5th Supervisor District: Pat Bates edges Cassie DeYoung out for first place (both in the low 40s), but it goes to a November run-off.

67th… Read More

Oakland voters go to the polls today to choose their new mayor. I’m betting that it will be a run-off between City Council President Ignacio DeLaFuente and former Congressman Ron Dellums. I’d love to see DeLaFuente get enough votes to prevent a run off, but I’m guessing that there are enough wackos in my city to help Dellums make it into a November run off.

In the last days of the campaign, I received several phone calls in support of DeLaFuente, including one from the current mayor, Jerry Brown. But the most fascinating political marketing call I received was this message left on my phone over the weekend. It was a woman’s voice reading the following script:

“Ron Dellums left office 8 years ago to become a… Read More

Deal or No Deal?… I said I would get some flak for blogging the Horn-Thompson Supe Survey a few days ago. John Nienstedt, of the very credible (unlike, perhaps, the anon numbers I posted) Competitive Edge Research & Communication, sends alongthis appropo missive:

Barry, Barry, Barry: Yeah I’ll give you some flak. Last I checkedThompson’s employment designation isn’t "businessman," its "regionalbusiness administrator." Why does that matter? Because no self-respectingpollster (or pollster who deserves respect) would screw that up.

So bear with me now: backing the unsures out of Q3, this poll is sayingthat Thompson should win with 65% of the vote. Now, the margin of samplingerror on that question for a sample size of 377 (taking into account thatwe’re backing out the unsures) is plus or minus 4.8%. That means that, if Thompson gets less than 60% of the… Read More

It’s overcast and starting to rain in San Diego County, at least downtown. Not too many rainy days in the year here. If the rain picks up, expect turnout to drop. And more pile ups on the freeways, of course.… Read More