I was recently talking to seasoned Orange County political consultant Matt Holder, and he shared with me a theory concerning the recent, narrow loss of Diane Harkey to Assemblyman Tom Harman in the special election in the 35th State Senate election.

Harkey’s consultant, Scott Hart, had pointed out that Tom Harman had seen an unusually high margin of victory from asian foreign-language voters in the district — primarily Vietnamese voters — by a a very dramatic margin.

Holder’s theory is this — Harkey was depriving of an opportunity to purchase an official ballot statement for the voter guide produced and distributed by the Registrar of Voters because she was spending too much of her personal money (dumb law). Harman did have a statement, however, and it was sent to these households translated into the language of choice preferred by each voter.

Did that make the difference? It was a factor said well-respected pollster Adam Probolsky (who writes for this site). Probolsky suggested as well not to underestimate the impact of Harman’s ballot title — and that his being an elected State Legislature would have had a… Read More

Things are getting ugly in Orange County lately.

In the 5th Supervisor District, former Assemblywoman Pat Bates (full disclosure: I do some consulting work for Pat) and Laguna Niguel Mayor Cassie DeYoung are squaring off for this open seat. DeYoung has access to a ship-load of personal wealth, and has probably spent $1.5 million thus far.

DeYoung has hit Pat with a series of negative mailers focusing on her sponsorship of a matricula consular bill — which Pat wound up being on of only 7 Republicans to vote against due to Democrat machinations. The mailers — here, here and here — depict Pat’s image on a matricula consular card.

Pat responded by taking the DeYoung campaign to court, and yesterday the judge agreed to slap a… Read More

I just received this e-mail to me from Cal-YAF. My question is – Doesn’t Brenda Salas, Ayres primary opponent also get paid by the County of Riverside as an aide to a County Supervisor?

Cal-YAF Files Federal Complaint Against Jim Ayres Calls for prosecution for “egregious” violations of the ‘Hatch Act’

California Young Americans for Freedom last week filed a complaint with the United States Department of Justice – Office of Special Counsel, regarding a potential significant violation of the Federal Hatch Act by 65th Assembly District candidate Jim Ayres.

FACT: The Hatch Act, first passed in 1939 in reaction to political abuses by the Democratic Party, is a safeguard to prevent federal, state and local government employees from exploiting their office for partisan political advantage.

FACT: Specifically, the Act prohibits local government employees “whose principal employment is in connection with an activity which is financed in whole or in… Read More

The top story in the Washington Post today is about how support for the President and Congress are losing support from conservatives in a big way. Two of the main reasons are out-of-control spending, and failure to deal with the illegal immigration issue. If you figure that any Republican, including Arnold Schwarzenegger, needs conservatives to turn out in November, what is the GOP campaign going to be to conservatives who want SPENDING cuts (note, that is different than tax cuts) and strong action on the illegal immigration issue? It is no surprise that the House Appropriations Committee yesterday passed out language ending the legislative prohibition on offshore drilling for natural gas (not for petroleum). With gas prices rising, and with increasing concern about dependence on gas from the middle-east, constituents of Members of Congress from all around are calling on Congress to do something. The $100 tax credit … Read More

Due to a morning meeting, and the massive amount of news stories I had to format on the main page, there is no commentary today! I’ll try to swing back and post something later, and if I do, I will link it to the weblog.

Have a great day!

Jon

PS: Spend time on the main page, as I have some commentary under the stories, and have highlighted a few at the top. Of course, you wouldn’t want to miss my column in today’s Capitol Weekly, would you?

Care to read comments, or make your own about today’s Daily Commentary?

Just click here to go to the FR Weblog, where this Commentary has its own blog post, and where you can read and make comments.… Read More

I predict the media will get it all wrong tomorrow. SF Chron already got it wrong by highlighting that there’s no difference between Phil and Steve because they both support affordable housing, funding education and services for illegal immigrants.

There was no mention that they both support same-sex marriage (or Marriage Equality, as Steve calls it) and licenses for illegals. Those issues matter because that’s where they break with the voters. And those issues distinguish them from Arnold. Otherwise, all three candidates are alike.

Get out your magnifying glasses…you’ll need them to discern the differences between the Rep and Dem candidates in the General.

**UPDATE — (11:26 PM) Myers’ blog noted the two issues. Sign up for his blog alerts. He’s one of the best in the capital press corps .** **UPDATE — (5/11/06, 6:42 AM) Looks like all the major dailies EXCEPT THE SAC BEE included that the two candidates support same-sex marriage and drivers licenses for illegal immigrants. Dan Walters,… Read More

Here’s a column you may have missed. It’s by Timm Herdt, the columnist for the Ventura County Star. He has an interesting take on the Democrats’ motives for handing the Governor a bond victory. If he’s right (and he’s correct already on one item), it could be the Democrats who get the real victory.

If the governor gets all that out of this bond deal, what’s in it for Democrats?

Not to be a cynic, but someone has to ask that question.

The most intriguing comment last week came from Perata, who said this about Schwarzenegger’s role in the bond negotiations: "Weeks from now, you’ll find out he did things that now are not too obvious."

Such as?

Pay close attention Friday, when Schwarzenegger releases his revised budget proposal. State tax revenues are running more than $4 billion above projections, meaning the governor will have lots of money to hand out.

Watch how much goes to… Read More

Dear Mr. Branstine:

I was at the Murrieta Republican Women’s Federated 66th Assembly Candidates forum tonight; Where were you?

The other three Republican candidates for the 66thAssembly District, Nancy Knight, Steve Adams and Kevin Jeffries were there; Again where were you?

Did the fact that this was a Republican event scare you away given the revelations about your political past in the last few days?

I learned years ago that snubbing the RWF is amajor mistake when running for office as a Republican. I know you are much more used to attending SEIU Rally’s or Emily’s List fundraising parties,but in the Republican Party we tend to go to gatherings that have the word Republican in them.

Since you missed the action, let me tell you about it. One of the questions asked of the candidates was; Have you ever run in a Democratic Primary? All the candidates there answered no. Had you been there you would have beenthe lone yes in the room,maybe that is why you were absent.… Read More