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Michael Der Manouel, Jr.

Is Radanovich Vulnerable?

The Fresno Bee has started a new blog here which I encourage those reading this column to look at.  In its post yesterday, the blog referred to a potential challenge to local Congressman George Radanovich from a presumably wealthy challenger on the Democrat side.  I have long opined that Radanovich as well as other California incumbents are safe from Democrat challengers but that taken as a whole, the House may be up for grabs due to inaction on illegal immigration, and profligate spending that would make Democrats blush.  But I have never opined that GOP incumbents are safe from strong primary challengers, because many of them are not safe.  If a wealthy Republican threw $2 million into a race against any GOP incumbent it would be far more interesting than a race against a Democrat challenger.

So am I saying that Radanovich and others are safe from Democrat challengers, by and large, but vulnerable to primary challengers?  Yes and maybe.  If Republicans don’t fix the borders, quit capitulating to big ag and big business on illegal immigration and get the federal budget under control it is Republicans that will take it out on them at the ballot box, either by not showing up or by rewarding a strong primary challenger. 

Radanovich is hosting new Majority Leader John Boehner this week for a fundraiser in Fresno, certainly sending a message to would be challengers that his seat will be protected by the House leadership.  But those same House leaders, past and present, will have a hard time defending their record on just about anything except the tax rate cuts and the war on terror.  The unfolding Medicare Part D disaster only adds fuel to the fire.  I hope Boehner carries a message of change and discipline to the Valley this week.  If not, GOP voters could be staying home en masse this November.