The Tarrance Group, a polling firm out of Virginia was retained by the Tom Harman for State Senate campaign to survey likely voters. Today, Harman’s campaign gave the FR the early scoop (H/T to FR contributor Duane Dichiara) on the results from that survey.
This survey of 459 registered "likely" voters was taken on February 19-20.
The ballot test:
TOM HARMAN: 37%
LARRY CABALLERO: 23% (Dem)
DIANE HARKEY: 16%
UNDECIDED: 20%
Name identification:
HARMAN: 76% of voters know who he is with 39% having a favorable impression and 14% having an unfavorable impression.
HARKEY: 39% know her, and they say "three out of four have either never heard of her, or have no specific impression of her.
Now, these numbers are pretty strong for Harman. We’ll be looking for some critique of the attached memo from fellow FR Contributor Adam Probolsky, who is himself a pollster. If for no other reason, I expect Probolsky to assail these numbers as he has been retained by Harkey.
That said, I will say that polling is a very subjective business, and it is sometimes hard to discern the validity of information based on a pollster’s memo. More helpful is the detailed information on precisely who was called, and what was asked and how.
That said, we’ve all known that Harman started this race with a huge advantage in terms of name identification. The question is whether Harkey (especially if you hold these numbers to be credible) can make enough inroads to make up for Harman’s six years in the public eye.
The memo from the Tarrance Group, released by Harman’s campaign, is attached.
February 28th, 2006 at 12:00 am
I was polled in this poll last week and I reported it as a hit poll against Diane Harkey on my blog Powder Blue Report. I’d like to see the numbers when these same voters are told that Tom Harmon voted to give tuition benefits to illegal aliens. It may make Mr. Harmon feel good, but he is going to lose by a landslide on April 11 I predict.