[Editor’s note: Probolsky, a regular contributor to this page, is the president of Probolsky Research, a prominent and respected political polling firm. – Flash]
The Governor makes me proud every once in a while. Like a father that cries while spanking his son, it pains me to criticize the Governor when he all to often does something that upsets my conservative, limited government, pro-border security sensibilities.
But today’s Field Poll demonstrates a phenomenon that I have always claimed existed. That is that this governor will always, in the final stretch, win re-election. You can never count him out. He will raise the money he needs and his ability to develop a personal connection with the voters means he will win enough of them over to put him over the top.
Today’s Field Poll release shows the Governor about even with his Dem rivals Angelides and Wesley. Several numbers in their latest release lead me to believe the governor is doing even better than they report.
1) Among conservatives, as many as 20% say they will vote for the Democrat. I do not believe this will be the case. These are ‘phantom protest’ votes that will not materialize for the Democrats. When the vast majority of these conservative voters fill out their ballots, they will choose the Governor.
2) Coastal county voters will be more supportive of this governor that the Field Poll predicts. This governor will spend resources campaigning in these coastal counties, he will promote his environmentally friendly policies and demonstrate a record that he errs on the side of caution when it comes to protecting the environment.
3) I really don’t like nit-picking the research of other organizations for which I have respect. But in order to identify truly, the sentiments of likely voters, I use the voter file–self identified likely voters are well, not always really likely voters. The bottom line is that likely voters are probably under represented in this batch of 507. Among a more representative sampling of likely voters the Governor is probably doing even better.