I’m waaay overdue for some posting here on FR.
Now that the 35th SD special election is over, focus is drifting back to the pocketful of contested elections on the June ballot.
The 67th AD primary is most directly impact by Assemblyman Tom Harman’s victory over Diane Harkey. Now he’s the presumed incumbent Senator for the next eight years, instead of a termed-out lame duck. As such, he’s in a much stronger position to help his wife Dianne succeed him in the Assembly.
Thus far, Mrs. Harman’s campaign has been overshadowed by the slugfest going on between Cypress Councilman Mike McGill and OC Supervisor Jim Silva.
Until a few months ago, the expectation (which I shared) was that Jim Silva would roll into this seat. Neither Harman nor McGill were considered serious candidates. In the last few monhts, however, McGill has revamped his campaign with $120,000 in his own funds and aggressive tactics from new campagin manager Joe Ghiardiello and Cal-YAFers. Their strategy is to positon McGill as "the" conservative candidate by hammering at several bad votes Silva has made during his 12 years on the Board. McGill has several bad votes of his own as a Councilman, so it will be left up to voters to sort through the negative mail and decide which votes they find most offensive.
The opportunity for Harman is to both run-up-the-middle a la Marilyn Brewer in the 70th AD in 1994, and to present herself as the above-the-fray candidate. The latter dynamic helped Bob Huff pull past Gayle Pacheco and Bob MacAloney in the 71st AD in 2004.
I’m sure there will be lots of union IEs for the left-of-center Dianne Harman, as there were for her husband in the 35th SD. On the other hand, 67th AD voters may be reluctant to play the spouse swap game. And just as Diane Harkey was ultimately unable to overcome Tom Harman’s ballot-tested name ID and long-time representation of much of the 35th SD, that same dynamic will be working for Jim Silva — a three-term county supervisor who was an eight-year councilman in the largest city in the 67th AD before that.
I still think it is Silva’s race to lose, but it’s a very fluid dynamic that could turn a number of ways.
The other contested GOP Assembly race is in the 72nd AD, where Yorba Linda Mayor Mike Duvall and Brea Myor Pro Tem Marty Siminoff. Duvall is both the perceived frontrunner and mcuh more conservative than Siminoff. In fact, I wouldn’t characterize Siminoff as conservative in sense. For example, he has voted to spending $250,000 of city funds to hire a public affairs frim to wage a campaign against a private landowner attempting to develop homes on property outisde the City of Brea. That alone is reason to vote against him.
Duvall’s campaign consultant is Gilliard, Blanning, Wysocki & Associates, and Siminoff’s is Jim Nygren. As of the March 17 reporting period, both men had about $150,000 cash-on-hand.
That’s all for now.