Federal lobbyist and former Congressman Brian Bilbray, the Republican, is LOSING to liberal school teacher Francine Busby, the Democrat in a “safe” GOP seat as conservatives nationally, and in this coastal San Diego County district are fed up with ‘big government’ Republicanism.
I just got off of the phone with Bill Hauf. The overwhelming majority of FR readers will be unfamiliar with who that is – Hauf is one of the conservative candidates who ran in the large field to replace ‘Duke’ Cunningham in Congress. Hauf, who ran a principled campaign on the issues, didn’t fare as well as he would have liked. But he was proud that nearly 70% of the votes that went to Republicans were cast for conservative/reform candidates. Of course, Brian Bilbray who is a liberal-moderate Republican, who one with about 15% of the vote, now has to consolidate Republicans and decline-to-state voters behind him for the special election run-off on June 6th.
A lot of conservatives in the 50th District have been worried about whether Bilbray can win in June, but Hauf took his concern one step further. Hauf actually commissioned a survey from Bob Moore of Moore Information, a very reputable pollster, who conducted 450 interviews in the district. The results were quite disturbing. I have actually attached a memo provided to me by Hauf from
- In the race to fill the vacancy, Francine Busby leads Brian Bilbray 43-37% among all voters, with each of the minor party candidates getting 1%, 5% voting for none of the candidates and 13% undecided.
- In the GOP primary for the regular term, Republican Brian Bilbray is the frontrunner. Eric Roach is his nearest opponent today, trailing Bilbray. None of the other candidates gets over 5% in this 10-way test.
- In two informed general election match up tests, Roach does better than Bilbray against Busby.
(Check out the attached survey summary page by clicking through the attachment below.)
Hauf went on to say, “I commissioned this survey to find out whether I could mount campaign to keep this seat in the GOP column. I looked to see if I would be viable as a candidate who could win – but what I concluded from the survey is that Eric Roach is the only possible candidate that would be able to win not only the primary in June but the general election against Francine Busby in November."
Right now, Eric Roach, who came in second in the crowded field by 1% or so (and by some thoughts, he may have actually won the pure GOP vote as this special was an ‘open primary’ where Democrats may have crossed over to vote for Bilbray, a lobbyist, as he would have been their choice to face Busby) is looking very closely at making a run for this seat.
Based on this survey, Roach can add one more important item to his “reasons to run” list – the Republican Party needs him. Without a conservative on the June ballot, where there are no notable contested GOP primaries in most of the district, the party stands a good chance of losing this seat.
I’ve spent time with Roach, and he is exactly the kind of candidate we need to instill energy, enthusiasm and pride in the conservative voters that live in this district. If you look at this survey on MSNBC, you can see that nationally we have a big problem with conservatives. Roach can bring these conservatives to the polls. Otherwise, we may be looking at a GOP loss in a so-called “safe” seat.
May 5th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Ok, let’s start with the fact that this poll was conducted over a Saturday and Sunday – weekends, especially Saturdays, are terrible nights to poll.
Then let’s look at the little information provided by the memo: First, the test against Busby was done AFTER a series of push questions. Those pushes were obviously aimed at tearing down Bilbray’s numbers. Second, Jon’s long-standing argument that conservatives won’t support Bilbray is trashed by this poll, which shows Bilbray beating Roach across the ideological spectrum, including among conservatives.
Finally, the poll was conducted on behalf of a candidate who spent $1 million to get 1.6% of the vote. Are these numbers as good as the ones that kept the Hauf spending machine going in the first Primary?
By the way, our own tracking, which was very accurate in the first primary, shows Brian holding a steady lead on Busby. It’s not a landslide, but Bilbray will win unless some of my friends choose this odd time and place to take a stand for ideological purity, even if it means making Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House.
May 5th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Dave, I would expect you, as Bilbray’s consultant to step up and attack this survey. That’s what you are paid to do. You’re a very capable consultant, I might add. But unfortunately the facts are clear — conservatives are simply not excited by the candidacy of someone who is going to be a pro-choice, anti-second amendment, liberal-moderate Republican candidate. Yes, I agree that Bilbray would be a good vote to elect a Republican speaker (which is why all Republicans should check the box next to Bilbray for the special election run-off). But conservatives should have a better advocate than Bilbray in Congress for the full two-year term, don’t you think? Well, you don’t have to answer. I’m sure you will defend your client, as you should.
May 5th, 2006 at 12:00 am
I don’t think this is so much a liberal v. conservative party battle as the “evil party v. stupid party” battle than M. Stanton Evans coined. With the type of TV ads being run by the RNCC on behalf of Bilbray to attack Busby, they have given life to her campaign: That was a tall order, but they appear to have succeeded.
May 6th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Gentlemen:
Another interpretation of these results:
On April 11th, Busby got 43% of the vote to Bilbray’s 16%.
Three weeks later, Busby is still stuck on 43, while Bilbray has advanced
to 37. He has the momentum at this point, because many voters
who backed other GOP candidates are rallying to him.
BTW, I don’t doubt Dave Gilliard’s numbers… but even the results of the poll we’re
discussing here show Bilbray moving, and Busby with no new wind in her sails.
May 6th, 2006 at 12:00 am
13% undecided is a key number for Bilbray. I bet the majority are likely to pick his “experience” over the alternatives. Besides, he barely needs 50% of the undecided to beat Busby.
Just an observation.
May 6th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Since the Bilbray numbers are so good, I’m sure they will be released soon.