From today’s WALL STREET JOURNAL POLITICAL DIARY
Whistling Past California’s 50th District
Republican officials in California are less nervous than their national counterparts about the prospects of holding onto the San Diego congressional seat being filled next Tuesday in a special election. Republicans have been unlucky in the seat ever since the previous incumbent Randy "Duke" Cunningham went to prison for taking bribes and cast a corruption pall over the race to succeed him. The GOP primary was a contentious affair in which a former congressman turned lobbyist named Brian Bilbray came out on top with only 15% of the vote in a divided field. He now faces Democrat Francine Busby, a school board member, who is running as a moderate and embraces many of John McCain’s issue positions.
This week, U.S. News & World Report noted that staffers from the National Republican Congressional Committee were quietly telling GOP House members to prepare for a possible loss in next week’s elections. Such a defeat would be disastrous for GOP morale in trying to retain control of the House and would be a humiliating defeat given the $3.1 million the NRCC has already spent trying to retain the seat.
However, the situation appeared to have stabilized in the last few days. "Volunteers are reporting for duty and the absentee ballots coming in are now more Republican than Democratic," reports Ron Nehring, chair of the San Diego Republican Party. Local reporters also believe Mr. Bilbray may pull it out. Of course, that was before Senator McCain yesterday announced he was canceling an appearance at a fundraiser for Mr. Bilbray because he disagrees with his hardline, enforcement-only approach to illegal immigration. Even though Mr. McCain took pains to say he still endorses his fellow Republican in the special election, the symbolic message of the cancellation helps reinforce Ms. Busby’s message that she is closer to the views of the popular Arizona senator than her GOP opponent is.
Mr. Bilbray may still squeeze out a victory but that shouldn’t be a cause for big rejoicing among Republicans. The San Diego district is only 30% Democratic by voter registration, so should Ms. Busby even come close it would still signal that many other less conservative House seats are in danger this fall.
— John Fund