Sheriff
We’ve got a barn burner of a race for Fresno County Sheriff, with four "insider" candidates and one "outsider" candidate. Most of them have heavy hitters behind them. Here is how the race breaks down:
Colleen Mestas – insider candidate, Republican, supported by Congressman Radanovich and liberal County Supervisor Henry Perea. She has union money and some support in the Chamber of Commerce Community as well. The NRA Endorsement plays nicely in this County. Energetic candidate, has a good chance to make the runoff as she has closed hard in the final few weeks.
Margaret Mims – Insider candidate, Democrat with some GOP support. Fatal mistake of listing the Democratic Women’s Political Caucus and Progressive PAC in her mail. I don’t think she can make the runoff and if she does she’ll get creamed in November. She also has support from Democrat Mayors in the outlying areas of the County. She might hurt Mestas for all those voting for a women for this post by splitting this vote up.
Jose "Joe" Flores – Clovis City Councilmember and former Mayor, has the backing of Clovis Councilmember and Mayor Nathan Magsig and Congressman Devin Nunes. Has natural advantages of having appeared on the ballot several times in a populous part of the County. By all accounts has run a fairly dreadful campaign and probably isn’t ready for the enormity of the task. He is a new Republican, someone to be watched, and is battling Mestas, me thinks, for a spot in the runoff. Insider candidate.
Chris Curtice – Out on a disability claim with the Sheriff’s Department. Not a factor. The few times I have heard him he has been sincere and well spoken, but unprepared for a campaign of this size.
Cal Minor – Retired CHP and leader of the County’s Multi Agency Gang task force, Minor is the outsider in the race and should be in the runoff fairly easily. He looks and plays the part of tough cop very well, has run a nice campaign and is the "reformer" in the race. I like his chances overall, but if there is a runoff anything can happen. Has the important support of the Deputy Sheriff’s Association. Has proven himself to be a good fundraiser and speaker on the stump. Other candidates are now attacking him – an admission that he is a contender.
Prediction: Minor with 38%, Mestas 23%, Flores 20%, Mims 16% and the balance to Curtice.