The 2006 Republican Primary in the 65th Assembly District could go down as one of the dirtiest and most expensive primaries ever. In fact, I see it as a virtual case study on what’s wrong with gerrymandering: the major parties beat themselves senseless and broke during primaries and don’t ever face the opposing party to debate what’s best for the state. In this five-way contest, it’s about who’s the most against illegal immigration, and who’s the most against taxes. Then there are the lies, distortions, exaggerations, insults, accusations, character assassination and cheating that help define what a great species human beings really are.
How special this race has been. Anyway, now it’s time to speculate about what the results are going to look like tonight, based on limited information and partial analysis. First, the fundraising totals. San Jacinto Councilman Jim Ayres leads the field, having raised $472,804. Hemet Mayor Robin Lowe took in $395,159. Banning Councilwoman Brenda Salas raised $339,814, and Yucca Valley Mayor Paul Cook collected $268,149. In late contributions, Lowe had the most with $91,000 (which for some reason didn’t get reported online as late contributions until early this morning). Cook’s late contributions have totaled $71,000, with Ayres taking in $68,200 (including $40,000 in personal loans), and Salas coming up with $21,000.
Next, let’s look at a tracking poll (I don’t have a crystal ball). I’m looking at a survey taken last week that showed the overall horserace with all four major candidates in a statistical dead heat, with the margin of error at +/- 4%. It showed Ayres leading with 20.3%, with a 31% to 19% favorable-to-unfavorable rating. Cook had 19.7% with 30.0%/10.7%. Lowe had 18.3% with 33.7/11.7, and Salas had 17% with 27.3/25.3 positive to negative.
So it would seem that when Salas started the final week, she was narrowly within the margin of error of the leader, but her negatives were almost one to one. And while her negative baggage (only Republican three years; former Joe Baca and Boxer staffer) have been pointed out in a few hit mailers, she has been hit the least of all the candidates. Plus, numerous independent expenditures have been slamming her opponents. Still, in my book it would be surprising for a candidate to win with such a high negative ratio if trends were to hold and nothing major had changed since the survey.
A closer examination of the poll makes things look pretty encouraging for Cook, which explains why he’s been hammered over the past several days by the other campaigns and independent expenditure committees. Keep in mind that Cook benefits significantly from the ballot title "Retired Marine Colonel", which I believe inoculates him against some of the attacks against him in a heavily military district.
Cook was leading in his home County of San Bernardino with 40.9 percent. Ayres had 14.8%. Lowe and Salas each had 9.1%. On the Riverside County side, Ayres had 22.6%; Lowe had 22.2%; Salas had 20.3%, and Cook 10.8%. As I said quite early in this campaign, before Cook was drawing much attention, having three strong Riverside County candidates in the race could help make Cook a serious contender even though Riverside makes up two-thirds of the district. Why? Because of the intensity of those who support him:
– Among those most likely to vote, Cook led with 20.4%; Ayres had 19.6%; Lowe had 18.9%, and Salas had 16.5%.
– Among supporters of the three major Riverside candidates, Cook’s favorables in head-to-head matchups averaged 10-percent higher than any of the others; and
– Cook’s supporters were the most loyal, being half as likely to leave Cook than his opponents’ supporters.
Not to be deterred, on the independent expenditure front the West Valley Young Republicans spent $184,000 on the 65th race in favor of Salas and against everyone else, while some outfit called the Committee Against Corruption spent $126,000 on negative mail against Cook and Ayres. And since my last post, in which I speculated that Board of Supervisors Chairman Supervisors Bill Postmus wouldn’t likely sit idly by this race, Postmus (my boss) didn’t disappoint. In just the past 10 days, while he was busy running his countywide bid for Assessor, he spearheaded an effort in which the Inland Empire Young Republicans put out $92,000-worth of mail supporting Cook (Consultants: Coronado Communications).
In addition to the more than 40 separate district-wide mailings put out by the four major campaigns and three PACs, a barrage of "robo-calls" – recorded mass phone messages – are sure to have 65th A.D. voters reaching for the Maalox. Each of the campaigns and PACs paid for such calls – at least four of which have gone out in the last three days alone. There were also some anonymous (read: illegal) robo-calls hitting all candidates, including one by a bunch of unpatriotic, lying cowards claiming that Cook didn’t actually receive his military decorations (earned for bravery in combat during which he was twice wounded), and that he’s an anti-war Jane Fonda supporter. Someone has earned a special place in hell for that one.
Good day, and good luck.
June 6th, 2006 at 12:00 am
the bloody 65th strikes again!!!
June 6th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Intriguing poll numbers from the Cook/SEIU camp (sorry, too easy to pass up). We also know Jim Ayres did a poll last week. What is most interesting is that both candidates who are known to have done polling attacked Brenda Salas in the final days of the race.
If strategy follows the numbers, as it should, it would seem to me Salas is in the lead. At least as of the time those polls were done.