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Matthew J. Cunningham

My OC Campaign Predictions

There are loads of hot races here in Orange County, and with our 21st Century Registrar of Voters doing his utmost to feed our appetite for results it shouldn’t be too late an election night (barring another Diane Harkey/Tom Harman-esque squeaker).

I’m running the traditional predictions contest on OC Blog, but I’ll post my own prognostications on the competitive races here:

2nd Supervisor District: OC Treasurer John Moorlach trounces government union proxy Dave Shawver by 20 points.

5th Supervisor District: Pat Bates edges Cassie DeYoung out for first place (both in the low 40s), but it goes to a November run-off.

67th Assembly District: Jim Silva edges out Dianne Harman, with Mike McGill a close third in the GOP primary — and they’ll be bunched up in the mid-30 percent.

69th Assembly District: Santa Ana Councilwoman Claudia Alvarez wins another three-way bunch up — with Santa Ana Councilman Jose Solorio second and Armando De La Libertad third — but I don’t discount an Armando squeaker upset.

72nd Assembly District:: Yorba Linda Mayor Mike Duvall beats Brea Councilman Marty Simonoff by 10-15 points.

34th Senate District: OC Supervisor Lou Correa beats Assemblyman Tom Umberg by 10 points in the Democratic primary, and Lynn Daucher lucks out with a win over her unfunded primary opponent Lupe Moreno. If Daucher doesn’t completely bury Moreno, it doesn’t augur well for the general.

OC Sheriff’s Race: Mike Carona squeaks out a win just above 50% and avoids a November run-off. Bill Hunt snags second place and Ralph Martin a close third.

2 Responses to “My OC Campaign Predictions”

  1. drobinson@lahgt.com Says:

    But what is your prediction about Jon? Will he win reelection to the central committee?

  2. hoover@cts.com Says:

    Returns from behind the Orange Curtain show
    Jon Fleischman headed to victory for the
    GOP central committee.