Deal or No Deal?… I said I would get some flak for blogging the Horn-Thompson Supe Survey a few days ago. John Nienstedt, of the very credible (unlike, perhaps, the anon numbers I posted) Competitive Edge Research & Communication, sends along this appropo missive:
Barry, Barry, Barry: Yeah I’ll give you some flak. Last I checked Thompson’s employment designation isn’t "businessman," its "regional business administrator." Why does that matter? Because no self-respecting pollster (or pollster who deserves respect) would screw that up.
So bear with me now: backing the unsures out of Q3, this poll is saying that Thompson should win with 65% of the vote. Now, the margin of sampling error on that question for a sample size of 377 (taking into account that we’re backing out the unsures) is plus or minus 4.8%. That means that, if Thompson gets less than 60% of the vote, it is 95% likely that the poll was screwed up to begin with. It’s either that, or there was a mass migration of the unsures to Horn in the campaign’s last week, which would make no sense at all since poli sci 101 dictates that undecideds tend to break against the incumbent.
So here’s my proposition to you, Thompson gets less than 60% and you’re not allowed to cite "polling" numbers from whoever it is you’re getting them from after you tell me who you got them from. Thompson gets more than 59% and dinner at Mr A’s for you and your wife is on me. Deal?
I’ll give you something. Cheryl Cox will take 1st and will be the next Mayor of Chula Vista. OK, here’s something else, turnout countywide will be far higher than anyone else is predicting. I’m going to go with 50%+.
To be fair to John, his turnout prediction was before the threat of rain, as fellow blogger Duane Dichiara posted earlier (scroll down).
My response to John, only because this is too much fun for election day:
John , John, John: Where did I say anything about what I thought these numbers meant? I said "for what it’s worth," including that it was a Datamar-like auto response. I say Thompson by a slim margin, if anything. So, it would seem odd for me to toss my ability to post info, when I have likely no chance of a free dinner at Mr. A’s! ;-)
So, deal or no deal? No deal. Although, I will ask the source if I can tell you.
John then puts me in my place, perhaps deservedly:
Barry: You likely have no chance for a free dinner because your info is wrong. I think that’s a pretty good litmus test when deciding to post polling numbers: "If I’m passing up a chance at a free dinner, I just don’t have enough confidence to run these numbers."
But here’s the thing: I get someone in my office quoting "Barry Jantz’ numbers." Because you run with them, people a) give them weight and b) attach your reputation to them.
The larger point is that bad polling generally tends to lessen confidence in all polls.
So noted for the future, and thanks to John and Competitive Edge for a good analysis of the numbers…although I vehemently disagree with anyone who implies I have a good reputation.
Some Predictions… What else is there to do today?
CD 50: Bilbray by 5% over Busby. Turnout, seniors.
GOP Primary for the 50th: Come now, I won’t even give this "question" the credibility of an answer.
5th District Supervisor: Thompson. You can’t say the media isn’t influential, but someone had to have started the Horn press onslaught. Bonus question: Who?
77th AD: Crap Shoot between Dale and Anderson, anybody’s guess.
74th AD: Garrick. Can you say $$$?
CD 51: Filner wacks Vargas.
Chula Vista Mayor: See John Nienstedt’s take above.
Your thoughts? Email me.
June 7th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Barry:
As I write this (2 am) , Supervisor Bill Horn is being re-elected with
53 % of the vote….
John Neinstedt hit the bullseye, as usual, by noting the incorrect
“businessman” ballot designation.
In fact that was the heart of Horn’s successful legal acton in March,
challenging his opponent’s “businessman” ballot title.
In retrospect, that looks like a key turning point in the race.
And Some free advice from me to the (mercifully) anonymous person
who did this poll: It’s time to change the propeller on your Beanie.