There are those in politics that rely on polling data and those that rely on instinct and the "feel" of the electorate. I don’t think its a stretch at all to say that the situation for Republicans in general is beginning to "feel" like an improving trend. Of course, we had nowhere to go but up. It’s nice to see the downward slide stop for now.
It all starts in Washington, where the mood of the electorate is set by whether or not we see leadership. The electorate has been very, very dour as of late, but the President has had his best week in a year and one senses he might be on a small roll right now. Although the basic competency of Congress has not changed, and it is still light years from solving any major problems facing the country domestically, the overall situation seems stable for now. The President’s improving polling numbers validate the "feel" of the current situation.
Here at home, many of the components of a re-election for Arnold Schwarzenegger are in place. He has the opponent he wants, a hardcore liberal who wants to raise taxes, sign job killing legislation and pursue policies that would reverse the economic growth seen under the current Administration. What’s more, Angelides seems truly oblivious to the destructive results his initial proposals would have on Californians. I think independent voters will see all of this in the end.
The Governor’s team seems quite a bit more competent than the strategists he had in place before. The initial advertising is better, and the messaging is more aggressive and focused. Good signs. Still, he faces a very uphill fight due to the sheer enormity of the demographic and voter composition changes we’ve seen in California for the the past 10 years. The old playbook doesn’t work anymore.
The components of the Governor’s campaign left to be put into place are pretty obvious. The Republican base is still not energized. We don’t know what the plan is for the campaign. Events in Washington might hurt his attempts to energize voters. We don’t know whether Arnold will fight back against the union onslaught, and we don’t really know what Arnold would or would not do in a second term. If we are at all to be a part of the turnout plan, and if the State GOP convention is to be succesful this August, Republicans and conservatives need some answers over the next few weeks. Next week, I’ll ask the questions and suggest the strategies I know will be succesful for the Governor’s campaign in the summer and fall. Stay tuned.
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