Field Poll is out today with poll numbers on the four infrastructure bond initiatives that Governor Schwarzenegger outlined in his January State of the State address this year. None of the bonds are doing especially well. You can read analysis of the poll results at New West Notes and Sacramento Bee.
While it’s not likely there will be a well-funded or organized campaign to oppose the bonds, there will most certainly need to be a clever campaign to pass the bonds in November. And probably, the governor will have to go out and actively – and aggressively – campaign in their favor.
The question is, could Newton’s action-reaction law of motion apply to the governor’s re-elect in November? What reaction (if any) will occur as a result of the governor campaigning to pass the bonds? The most recent Field Poll shows Gov. Schwarzenegger with 85% support among Republican voters – the magical percentage that the numbers crunchers said early on in the year was necessary for him to win re-election. Could that number decline, however, if the Republican governor makes the case for the education or housing bonds? Quite possibly. It’s not clear if at the California Republican Party convention on August 18th, the party will endorse either of those bonds.
Indeed, the Call to Convention letter by CRP Chairman Duf Sundheim outlines the party’s four main objectives for the road to victory this Fall. The objectives do not include ensuring the success of the cornerstone of the governor’s administration this year.
1. Re-elect Governor Schwarzenegger;
2. Elect our statewide candidates for constitutional officers;
3. Protect and pick up seats in the legislature; and
4. Continue to cultivate and develop the people and techniques to win elections in 2008 and beyond.
If Governor Schwarzenegger wins in November, he needs at least a couple of his bonds to succeed for him to lay claim to any sort of legacy. This political balancing act could be very interesting to watch over the next three months.