Today is swearing in day for the new Legislature. The 2006-08 session officially begins today.
For me, it is a strange time. Since 1992, I have showed up on the first Monday of December in each even numbered year, raised my right hand, and swore to defend the United States Constitution and the Constitution of the State of California against all enemies foreign and domestic. I then spent the next two years defending those Constitutions against the domestic enemies who were elected to the California Legislature. That duty now falls to the new Legislators.
When I first joined the Legislature in 1992, there were 48 Democrats and 32 Republicans in the Assembly and 26 Democrats and 14 Republicans in the Senate. Today, there are 48 Democrats and 32 Republicans in the Assembly, and 25 Democrats and 15 Republicans in the Senate. The Senate never had more than 17 Republicans in the Senate, but the Assembly had 41 Republicans after the 1994 election. After those Republicans were sold out by Paul Horcher, Doris Allen and Brian Setencich, they finally solidified their majority by January, 1966. We lost that majority in November 1996.
In fact, Republicans lost seats in every election between 1990 and 2000 except 1994. This was supposedly the days of a "fair" redistricting. We lost 1 seat in 1992, 5 seats in 1996 (one Senate and 4 Assembly seats), 6 seats in 1998 (one Senate and 5 Assembly seats), and 2 assembly seats in 2000. Under the gerrymandered seats of the 2001 redistricting, Republicans picked up three seats (one Senate and two Assembly seats). Since 2002, no seat has changed hands. From an historical perspective, Republicans have done much better under the gerrymandered seats than they ever did with a "fair" redistricting.
My point–we won’t win seats just because the redistricting plan is fair. We will only gain a majority if voters get disgusted with Democrats (as they did in 1994), or if Republicans can prove to voters that they would be a better governing majority than the Democrats. Since waiting for Democrats to screw up has been a losing strategy for a very long period of time, perhaps it is time for Republicans actually going out and proving to voters that they can govern the state better than Democrats.
The challenge for the current members of the Legislature is to make that case. Simply raising lots of money won’t make the case. It will require that most members of the Legislature go into Democrat districts and explain their case. They will have to get out of their comfort zone, out of their districts, and into their neighbor’s districts and explain Republican policies. They may only get 60% of the vote in their district in the next election (as opposed to the 70% they got this election), but they will return after the 2008 election with increased numbers.
Having served both ways, that is with increased and decreased numbers, trust me, I recommend increased numbers every time. A Republican Speaker or President Pro Tem is preferable to Democrat, and Republican majorities on committees are much easier to persuade than Democrats. A focused effort to increase numbers over the next two or three election cycles will reap great rewards, but it will also require a great effort. Fair redistricting alone will not increase numbers. Hard work will.
We soon find out if the new guys have it in them. It will be fun to watch.