I was really convinced that Dan Lungren would beat Gray Davis. Thus, I now know that predictions are not my forte. But here are five "no brainers", at least in my mind:
1. The State’s budget problems will be far worse under the current Administration than under the Davis administration, unless the Governor finds a blue pen somewhere;
2. Assembly Republican Leader Villines is damn determined to keep his caucus united on spending and taxation, and may save California from even more fiscal ruin with his focused, CENTRIST leadership – he’ll be successful if he engages fiscally conservative activists around the state to help him.;
3. Republican voters are still very, very pissed about the direction of the Party and 2007 will be a very, very slow healing time – we may not even be ready for 2008 unless we get some "red meat" issues somewhere;
4. Ron Nehring and Tom Del Beccaro will be the new leadership tandem at the top of the State’s GOP for 2007-09. They will have only two choices when they take office: maintain the status quo of following the Governor’s lead on policy, in order to keep money coming in or, find an independent streak and try a new way – developing donor relationships directly – they’ll only be remembered if they take the latter course;
5. Nehring will build an incredible infrastructure. The best ever. He’s all process, all the time. Smart guy. But process alone will not drive turnout. Infrastructure isn’t a cure for anything. We need ISSUES, and we need CANDIDATES. Those are two things voters rally around. They don’t rally around 72 hour programs.
That’s it. Merry Christmas.