Two of the things I am convinced of are:
- Jackie Speier was denied the opportunity to be the Lt. Governor of California by Liz Figueroa in the Democrat primary. Had it not been for Figueroa appearing on the ballot with an anemic campaign, the votes she "earned" would have gone to Speier. Further, she was the only one that could have prevented Jerry Brown from returning to the corner office of the State Capitol in 2010.
- Most of the California Congressional Delegation has lost touch with the politics of California. Out of the 53 of them I would guess less than a dozen are truly active politically any more.
Speier is a formidable political force because of her media presence, compelling story, and shameless pursuit of headlines in a way that makes her appear to be the best friend of the voter/consumer/whatever. Love her or hate her the woman is a really good politician.
The reason for this post is that she is thinking about taking on Congressman Tom Lantos in the primary next year. Here is a story from Matier and Ross,
I loved it when Assemblymen Joe Nation and Juan Vargas ran for Congress. I was hoping that one of them would win to hold members of Congress from California more accountable.
In this case I am confident that Speier would beat Lantos. She could probably beat five or six other members of Congress in the region too. A Speier victory would take Lantos out of the picture and make a several other members of Congress start to pay more attention to California.
This race will be about more than just Speier against Lantos. The impacts will be felt all over California and the political machine of Speaker Nancy Pelosi who will have to defend the incumbent…or will she?
My money is on Speier by 20 and that Pelosi will be all talk and no action when it comes to trying to save Lantos.
November 29th, 2007 at 12:00 am
I think you are kidding yourself on this one Matt, although as always you make a couple of good points.
First as to Members of Congress being out of touch with California politics, the reason for that somewhat deserved reputation is largely because as a delegation they are playing such major national roles now that we have a California Speaker.
All you have to do is look at the nightly news to see a different California member taking on a major role in some national issue and having influence over the debate that they have never had previously.
Certainly there is a danger that those members could lose touch with their local constituents especially since many are aging and could be slowing down, but most have done a great job of constituent service and that constituent service has gotten even better with Democrats in the majority. With the chance to actually accomplish things, many members are drawing top flight people to the hill to work while when they were in the minority, most good people didn’t want to spend time spinnng wheels and wouldn’t consider working for a member of Congress.
Many of those members have also developed outstanding district office staffs which helps them stay on top of what is going on back home (and as a side note, Lantos staff is phenomenally well regarded for their work and has had visitors from other members offices come in just to see how they were set up)and that staff support will be a big factor in helping any of them that face a serious challenge from a popular local elected official.
As for Tom Lantos and Jackie Speier, I can understand why a Republican would hope that challenge might happen, but in the end, I don’t think it will and if it does, I believe Lantos will win easily. That is in large part because of the effect this race could have on the Presidential election.
For those that are unfamiliar with Tom Lantos, he is an 81 year old holocaust survivor who traditionally has been very pro-defense while maintaining a liberal record on domestic issues. However, unlike for example, Joe Lieberman who is currently saying he may not even be able to vote for the Democratic nominee, Lantos has remained a very partisan Democrat and worked hard to convince many national groups and organizations that might have had some doubts about the path the party was following to stay on board.
Lantos was given public credit by many nationally prominent Jewish leaders for having worked to convince them to support John Kerry four years ago when the Bush campaign was making a major unsuccessful push to win over Jewish voters and the Democratic Presidential candidates will need that same help this year. Jewish voters are definitely in play and a Tom Lantos will make a major difference in where they land.
Lantos also has been a long time ally and friend of the Speaker backing her even when it was not politically easy and this has gone a long way towards making her acceptable in her rise up the political ladder to people who might not have been so open to a so called “San Francisco liberal”. Lantos saw something more in her and helped convince other members who may not have been around her as much of the same thing.
Nancy Pelosi probably would have made it to the top on her own, but having a Tom Lantos to vouch for her as a good person who could be trusted on decisions involving national security while she was on the way up politically, certainly had to help make it easier to lead the entire caucus.
Although Lantos originally (like Hillary Clinton and John Edwards) voted for the war, he now opposes it and has stated many times that the overall strategy of the Bush administration was flawed and endangered the security of American allies including the State of Israel. Again, given his unique personal history as well as his long record in Congress, his criticisms of President Bush have had a lot of resonance nationally and helped reassure moderate voters throughout the country that Democrats could be trusted on security issues and I am sure Lantos will take on that same role this year for whomever the Presidential nomineee is. His influence also clearly affected the outlook of many opinion leaders such as news commentators which had a trickle down benefit for all Democrats.
Lantos record has made him a very popular spokesman for Democratic members in marginal congressional seats and if Lantos were to lose a primary fight, that loss could conceivably wind up costing the party several of those marginal seats in congress which is not something I would think any Speaker or for that matter, any Democratic member would want to have happen.
Matt may be right that the Speaker will simply dodge this fight because Jackie Speier is a popular former elected official in that same area whose Senate Seat overlapped much of the Congressional District and will be very tough to beat if she does run, but I suspect that losing a valued member of the caucus, a friend and a close political ally from a neighboring district, especially a member that helps the Democratic party so much nationally, would damage the unity of the Democratic caucus and make Nancy Pelosi’s job as Speaker so much tougher and I think she (and every other Democratic member of Congress who might have to worry about their own challenges from popular local elected officials down the road) will be very involved in this race and even without the rest of the caucus, there are very few people tougher in a political fight than Nancy Pelosi and combining that with Tom Lantos own strengths in the district (he has been called by one national environmental organization, “the most pro environment Congressman in history” and also worked to develop a lot of the educational infrastructure that nurtured the growth of Silicon Valley)and topping it off with the support Lantos will get from National Democratic leaders will make him way too hard for a challenger to take out, even one as popular and respected as Jackie Speier amd I think in the end Speier will see it that way too and decide to pass on the race.
I could be wrong about all of that and clearly some people with their own agenda’s are pushing Speier in the other direction, but when she studies it all the way through, I think Jackie Speier will realize that she needs to wait for another time and that even if there isn’t anything obvious waiting, politics changes fast and her time could still happen just as it did for John Foran many years ago when he was faced with similar circumstances (that’s a bit of historic trivia thrown in for entertainment). But in the end, whether or not to run is a decision Jackie Speier will have to make and all of this about the Lantos seat is just my opinion. I have been wrong before and it could work out differently with Matt being right. We shall see!
November 29th, 2007 at 12:00 am
Rexroad is wrong, as usual.
Speier will win by 30.
November 29th, 2007 at 12:00 am
Speaking of people pushing the Senator to run who have their own agenda’s, one of them makes an appearance.
Dr. Cavala at the very least should have mentioned that he is working nowadays as a political consultant and has been one of the people pushing Jackie Speier to run for the seat.
I am not knocking his occupation since I do a fair amount of giving advice to candidates or even questioning the quality of the advice since I am sure Bill really believes in it, but somehow the cynic in me is reminded of Al McGuire’s old story about how a new bouncer in a bar always starts a fight if there isn’t one within the first couple of days after he is hired. The reason is that without a fight happening every so often, the bar owner starts thinking he doesn’t need a bouncer anymore.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:00 am
Tom Lantos has been beating the odds since he escaped a Nazi death camp
near the end of World War II, fighting in the anti-Nazi resistance in his native
Budapest. He is the only Holacaust survivor ever to serve in the US House.
I’m a Republican, but it’s just a LITTLE early to count out a Man who could
do all that as a teenager. Somehow I doubt a little primary election fight
will faze someone who went through that fire.
December 18th, 2007 at 12:00 am
Does anyone have a political memory? Recall when Howard Berman challenged Leo McCarthy for the speakership. We ended up with a series of statewide primary challenges which ultimately led to the unseating of a few “safe” Democrats in the general election, a step towards further public disallusionment with politics and politicians, and, ultimately, term limits which has given us state government by and for the lobbyists.
Primary challenges should be reserved for cases where there are fundamental policy issues at stake. With the war in Iraq likely to fade as an issue in the next administration, a man of the fundamental integrity and with an overall progressive voting record as has Lantos should stay in office until he is ready to retire.