For months know, rumors have circulated around that Congressman John Doolittle who represents California’s 4th District, east of Sacramento, was going to announce his retirement. The Congressman has been been in a tough political battle, that must be very frustrating for him. You see, he is battling against a federal investigation of him that has been very high profile, but has yet to actually result in any formal charges. Yet, in the court of public opinion, Doolittle clearly has problems. In a district that was literally drawn to elect a Republican, he barely won re-election in 2006. His former opponent, military veteran Charlie Brown is running again, and I have seen polling data that shows it would be a very uphill battle for Doolittle to get re-elected. The taint of the FBI probe has also had a significant and negative impact on the Congressman’s ability to raise needed funds for re-election, and has also caused a severe financial drain as potential resources for a re-election bid are diverted to pay legal bills.
I know John Doolittle well — and he is a good and honorable man. I find it hard to believe that he has broken any laws, and there is a level of frustration that comes from the fact that in a country where you are supposed to be innocent until proven guilty, John is paying a political price without being accused, or being able to mount a defense. It is akin to trying to box with shadows.
Well, politics being what it is, the most relevant point here is that Doolittle has been rumored, on and off, to be close to deciding not to run. This rumor has pink-ponged back and forth so much that along with a lot of weary beltway political reporters, there is a hesitancy to report anything until it actually happens.
That said, something IS happenning — though exactly what, only Doolittle can say. He has called a meeting of supporters for this Thursday morning to make an "announcement" to them — and as a further harbinger of a potential retirement announcement, Doolittle has called an "all hands" staff meeting for this Wednesday night, presumably to give them a heads up.
A flurry of media interest has been rekindled on this subject (h/t to the CMR for throwing the first match this go-around) — and so there has been a lot of press coverage, and all eyes are on Doolittle. If Doolittle decides to retire, then all of the action will be in the primary, and CD 4 shifts back into the safe GOP column. It is only "in play" because of the challenging circumstances in which the incumbent finds himself.
We’ll get much more into an analysis of the field once the Congressman finishes his announcement "process" — but at this point, you can count on a pretty crowded field of Republican candidates. There are already two GOPers solidly in the races — conservative military veteran Eric Egland and moderate Auburn Councilman Mike Holmes. Popular local conservative State Assemblyman Ted Gaines has one foot into the race, and would certainly plunge right in if Doolittle is retiring. Add to the mix that former State Senator Rico Oller, a longtime FR friend and conservative leader, has made it clear that, sans Doolittle, is he very interested. Also, former Congressman Doug Ose is also said to be looking seriously at running in an open-seat situation.
We’ll see how all of this develops, and if, indeed, Doolittle "pulls the trigger" and announces his retirement.