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Jon Fleischman

Chariot Survey: 50% of Republicans Undecided in California GOP Primary; Clinton Maintains Large Lead

UPDATE:  For those who have PowerPoint, you can download the attachment below and walk yourself through a slide-by-slide presentation of data.

Longtime FR Friend Jamie Fisfis is a principal with Chariot Research.  His firm does work literally all over the globe.  But they just came out of the field with a survey of California voters, giving us a glimpse of where things are in these final days before the Florida primary, to take place this Thursday.

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From Fisfis:

"We have just completed a survey of 800 likely primary voters in an effort to gauge pre-Florida primary numbers.  On the Democrat side, Hilary Clinton (38% dem) maintains a significant lead concentrated in the bay are an driven by a broad range of issues.  By contrast, Obama (18% dem) and Edwards (12.4% dem) are gaining their numbers based upon their strengths among foreign policy and economic issues, respectively.  It is also worth noting that  Edwards’ voters overwhelmingly like Obama as a second choice so news that Edwards is not getting out is continued bad news for Obama.

On the GOP side, the California race sits right now as a McCain (17%-14.9%) Romney battle with Huckabee (4.8%) and Giuliani (4.5%) tied.  Romney support tilts towards economic issues and Huckabee’s tilts to social issues but those are the only real issue distinctions among GOP voters.  Foreign affairs voters are split – not leaning McCain as many other surveys have shown.  Demographically, Romney leads in SoCal while McCain leads strongly in North-Central.  The Bay Area is split between McCain and Romney.  GOP voters are less energized at this point than Democrats, reflected in a full 50% being undecided.  It is worth noting that Huckabee’s support is the softest and his voters’ second choice is McCain."
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Jamie is more than happy to make more information/crosstabs on this survey available to you if you are interested.  Just drop me a line (there is a link at the top right corner of the site to e-mail me) and we’ll get you connect up with him.

Also, Jamie sent me a power point presentation but I am out until late (this is being posted via my Blackberry).  I’ll check that out and possible stick it up if it adds to this information!