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Jon Fleischman

When looking at SD 19’s Close Margin — I say, “Remember Denham”

I have gotten a lot of e-mails and a few phone calls this morning lamenting the "loss" of Tony Strickland’s bid for State Senate in the 19th District.  Currently, he is down around 100 votes to Hannah Beth "Taxin’" Jackson.

That said, the race is FAR FROM OVER.  In the Ventura County Star, it is being reported that "tens of thousands" of late absentee and provision ballots remain to be counted.  You can be sure that similar large numbers of late votes remain to be cast in the Santa Barbara and Los Angeles County portions of this sprawling district.

I have no doubt that Senate Democrats and Senate Republicans have dispatched their top operatives and attorneys to the three Registrar offices, as this kind of thing turns into quite a production.

It actually reminds me of a similar situation not too long ago.   Jeff Denham was down over 300 votes on election night in his first bid for the State Senate in 2002.  He went on to win by over 1800 votes.  Like Strickland, Denham was called "too conservative" for his district, but ultimately prevailed.

That said, Strickland was ahead in early absentees, and Jackson was ahead on election day returns.  Typically (but not always) these late ballots tend to trend towards as votes did on election day…

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