Posted by Adam D. Probolsky at 12:00 am on Oct 26, 2009 4 Comments
Jim Lacy, aslatemaker,released some polling data
today that suggests OC Supervisor Chris Norby is winning the race
for AD 72 in the November Special Election. And at first
glance you might think the results have some relevance. But
take another look:
The poll he contracted for only surveys Republican
voters
Special Elections in California are not governed by typical
Primary Election rules that exclude cross-party voting.
Therefore the Lacy poll is way off baseand has little
relevance in the grand scheme of electing someone to replace
Duvall. Leaving out Democratic and Decline to State voters
and even third-party members who represent a small portion of the
electorate, totally and unforgivingly skews the results to
meaninglessness.
Moreover, the poll fails to select any turnout model even just
among the Republican voters surveyed. So in a low turnout
Special Election where (you pick a number 20%, 30%, 19% 34%) will
actually cast a ballot, the Lacy poll chooses to survey everyone
who happens to be registered to the GOP regardless of their voting
history. If you believe the Lacy poll, 90% of Republican
voters will turnout in… Read More