From today’s Wall Street Journal Political Diary E-mail…
From Golden to Purple
The tide may be turning on the West Coast. A poll out by SurveyUSA shows California’s Republican gubernatorial candidate, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, leading Democrat Attorney General Jerry Brown by seven points. That’s the first poll showing Ms. Whitman ahead in three months. And for the first time, Republican senate candidate Carly Fiorina has pulled ahead of incumbent Barbara Boxer by two points. Ms. Boxer’s support remains stuck at 45%.
Part of Ms. Fiorina’s bounce is no doubt due to a national mood of disgruntlement with Democrats. The SurveyUSA poll shows the president with an approval rating of just 40% in California, down sharply from 60% a few months ago. Vice President Joe Biden visited last week to campaign for Ms. Boxer. Mr. Obama himself has visited twice recently. And no wonder. While Ms. Boxer receives 86% of the support of those who approve of the president, she only wins 5% of those who disapprove of him. Few more dramatic examples are available of how a president’s image can affect his party’s chances in an off-year election.
Ms. Whitman owes her own jump in the polls to solidifying Republican support after a fractious primary with State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. She has also fought back against labor attacks on "Queen Meg" with a slew of ads turning the tables on Jerry Brown’s support base. A new TV spot points out that the anti-Whitman ads have been sponsored by unions and special interests who "want Jerry Brown because he won’t rock the boat in Sacramento. He’ll be the same as he ever was. High taxes. Lost jobs. Big pensions for state employees." Public pensions are a sore spot for California taxpayers, with $6 billion this year going to pay for retiree pensions and benefits.
Ms. Whitman has also been striving to make inroads with Hispanics who make up about 20% of the state’s voters. She’s bought ads on Mexican television, billboards, bus stops, and Spanish-language websites touting her opposition to Arizona’s immigration law. The poll shows Ms. Whitman trailing Mr. Brown by just eight points among Hispanics, after President Obama carried the state’s Hispanic vote by over 50 points in 2008. Likewise, in her own race, Ms. Fiorina has emphasized how Ms. Boxer’s environmental policies have hurt Latino farmers in the Central Valley. Ms. Fiorina trails Ms. Boxer among Hispanics by just 13 points.