From today’s Wall Street Journal Political Diary E-mail…
From eBay FAQ: You Are Obligated to Your Bid. Bid Wisely!
When establishment Republicans backed Meg Whitman for governor, it was partly on the strength of her commitment to spend enough of her eBay fortune to drag other Republicans down the ticket with her to victory. Few might have expected the outcome that now seems to be materializing. Despite having spent $140 million, Ms. Whitman is falling further behind Jerry Brown, trailing by an average of 4.6 points in the RealClearPolitics rundown of recent polls. At the same time, with far fewer resources, fellow Republican Carly Fiorina has closed the gap with incumbent Barbara Boxer in the U.S. Senate race to an average of two points. She now stands a better chance of winning than Ms. Whitman.
Some of this isn’t Ms. Whitman’s fault. It turns out she chose the more difficult office to run for. Ms. Boxer has become a symbol of an inflexible and out-of-touch Washington, D.C. to many voters and has suffered from the anti-incumbent mood, holding a slim lead only because of California’s deep blue political complexion. But when it comes to governor, voter anger is directed at Sacramento and the state’s unpopular current GOP governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. Mr. Brown’s controversial 1970s tenure as governor grates on some voters, but only those over 50 can even recall it.
Because of his quirks Mr. Brown is not viewed as an establishment figure despite his ties to the power centers of the Democratic Party. But he has succeeded in linking Ms. Whitman to the current mess in Sacramento. Yesterday, he released a devastating 60-second attack ad called "Echo," which features several alternating video clips of Mr. Schwarzenegger and Ms. Whitman uttering the same talking points with barely a word of difference between them. The two political figures have had the same political consultant in the past: Mike Murphy.
The ad concludes with a quote from the San Jose Mercury News discussing the dangers of electing a neophyte governor: "We tried that. It didn’t work." The Brown ad is one of the most effective negative ads I’ve ever seen because it isn’t mean but lets the candidate under attack undermine her own position.
Ms. Whitman must also bear some of the blame for an "enthusiasm gap" among Republicans when it comes to this year’s races. A new Public Policy Institute of California poll found that only 38% of Republicans are "satisfied" with their choice of candidates of governor this year. The Senate race is different. There 61% of Republicans are satisfied with their choices. Ms. Fiorina has run a more spontaneous campaign, and also one that is more consistent and conservative. She backs Proposition 23, the ballot measure that would roll back California’s draconian limits on greenhouse gases until the state’s jobless rate declines. Ms. Whitman opposes the measure, favoring a one-year moratorium instead.
Republicans I talk with in California are just more comfortable with Ms. Fiorina, the daughter of a highly respected and conservative federal judge who served on the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. Ms. Whitman’s philosophical roots are, well, shallower. David Duval, a Del Mar businessman, recalls meeting Ms. Whitman last year as she geared up to run for governor. "What book on public policy have you read and can you recommend to this group?" he asked her. He says she praised three authors: liberal columnists Tom Friedman and Joe Klein and former Democratic Senator Bill Bradley. Mr. Duval felt moved to write Ms. Whitman an email: "Your answer completely deflated the impression you had given me in your prepared remarks. And your choice of authors called into question, for me and for others I spoke to, your commitment to all the very principles and objectives you had just laid out." He never got a satisfactory response.
Should the current polling trends continue and Ms. Whitman winds up doing less well than Ms. Fiorina, a valuable lesson will be learned. California voters may not agree with Ms. Fiorina’s more conservative stances on some issues, but her consistency and apparent genuineness appear to have worn better with the electorate.
— John Fund