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Mike Spence

Proposition 32 lost the election in October… 2011

Much has been said about the defeat of Proposition 32 in California. Much of that has focused on the GOTV operation of the labor unions, the Democrats and the Obama campaign. Not sure the difference between the  but they truly did a stupendous job. It was do or die and they did it.

The Proposition 32 campaign lost the  election over year ago when a decision was made not the place a referendum on the ballot challenging Governor Brown’s signing of Senate Bill 202. SB 202 moved all initiatives to November ballot. As a side note it broke a previous budget deal with Republican squishes and moved a “rainy day” fund measure to 2014.

Clearly, if you look at the results of the June primary it was a much more conservative electorate.

Duh! That’s why the Democrats wanted to move all initiatives to November.

Had the referendum qualified In June we would have voted on Proposition 32 language,  of course a different number.

The better turnout model would have arguably given the Proposition 32 folks had a better chance of winning despite any errors the campaign may have made in language, anonymous donors,  the lack of aggressive advertising etc…
Had the unions lost in June they would have been counting every penny. In November, Democrats would not have had the same kind of resources,  as the focus would be on the swing states.
Were the unions able to defeat Proposition 32 in June, it still would have been a positive for the GOP. It would have meant that the unions would have to recreate and fund another turn out of operation in November. This  would have been much harder and without it being “do or die” time.
The referendum paperwork was filed in October 2011 by Chuck Bell. The California Republican Party had gone on record supporting an effort in September of 2011. But it wasn’t even attempted.
Whoever made the decision that gathering the signatures wasn’t worth the money, is not only responsible for the Proposition 32 loss but probably some of our very narrow legislative and congressional losses.

Anonymous donors where were you when you were really needed.

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