Yesterday, one week after the election, the Legislative Analyst Office released a report on California’s fiscal outlook. It reported that there was going to be a $25 billion deficit. Assembly Budget Committee Chairman, Assembly Phil Ting, a Democrat, told the press there was nothing to worry about, “last year,” he said, “the LAO reported there was going to be a deficit at this same time, and it turned out to be a record surplus.” That is a false statement. I use the harsh word “false” because it is easy verifiable (though no one in the press even made the effort to verify if it was true or false). Read last year’s fiscal outlook report (on November 17, 2021) and you will find the LAO predicted a more than $30 billion surplus, with surpluses into the future (whoops, that was wrong too).
Contrast that with my prediction made in the run up to the state budget last year, in an article I wrote on December 15, 2021 entitled “My Advice to Legislators: Don’t Rely on LAO Rosy Scenarios For A Budget Surplus.” In that article, I said: “History has shown that pre-election projections of large… Read More