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Barry Jantz

Datamar: Election Results vs. the Pollsters

Datamar has released a report showing the actual election results in several categories up against the last polling done by some of the majors. Interesting compilation for those who like to study this stuff, chew it up, regurgitate it, and spew it out…and probably dream about it as well.

I asked Datamar’s Raul Furlong to comment on the results. Here’s what he had to say:

The election is over and the votes have all been counted — well almost all, and it is time to ask how the pollsters did in testing the voters mood.

Modern political polling has become a big part of candidate and initiative campaigns measuring the sense of the voters and tracking throughout campaigns whether certain ads or messages are working and whether the electorate is coming together in support of a measure, or a candidate, or turning away.

Datamar has been successful in measuring most races. Our polling is based on the concept of keying on high-propensity voters, that is, voters that have consistently voted in past elections, and we expect, will continue to vote in future elections. Past behavior is indicative of futureRead More

Jon Fleischman

Today’s Commentary: Ray Haynes joins the FlashReport – Mimi Walters Announces State Senate Bid…

Today the FlashReport is VERY pleased to be able to share with our readers that we have a new State Capitol Correspondent joining our team on the FR Blog — none other than retiring Assemblyman Ray Haynes! This is great news as Ray has been a strong conservative leader in the State Legislature since 1992, and has a true grasp and understanding of how to approach the challenging issues facing state government from the perspective of a strong constitutional conservative. Ray’s first post appears on the blog today, and we can all look forward to more insights from him as we go forward. Please join me in welcoming a true national conservative leader, Ray Haynes, to the FlashReport! Whatever else you read today, do not miss the "MUST READ" column, True Lies, by FR Bay Area Correspondent Bill Whalen, that is at the top of the main page today. This piece that Bill penned for the Weekly Standard online truly demonstrates his ability to pierce through all of the noise and get to the heart of the… Read More

Jon Fleischman

Ray Haynes joins the FlashReport – Mimi Walters Announces State Senate Bid…

Today the FlashReport is VERY pleased to be able to share with our readers that we have a new State Capitol Correspondent joining our team on the FR Blog — none other than retiring Assemblyman Ray Haynes! This is great news as Ray has been a strong conservative leader in the State Legislature since 1992, and has a true grasp and understanding of how to approach the challenging issues facing state government from the perspective of a strong constitutional conservative. Ray’s first post appears on the blog today, and we can all look forward to more insights from him as we go forward. Please join me in welcoming a true national conservative leader, Ray Haynes, to the FlashReport! Whatever else you read today, do not miss the "MUST READ" column, True Lies, by FR Bay Area Correspondent Bill Whalen, that is at the top of the main page today. This piece that Bill penned for the Weekly Standard online truly demonstrates his ability to pierce through all of the noise and get to the heart of the… Read More

Fleischman Endorsed by OCGOP

In the race for vice chairman south of the California Republican Party, this evening Jon Fleischman got the endorsement of his own Central Committee.

Both candidates for the post were given a chance to speak to the November meeting of the OCGOP. Fleischman took more than the two thirds of the vote necessary.

Congratulations Jon.… Read More

Jon Fleischman

No Anonymous Bloggers on this Site!

I have gotten a few inquiries from folks who have seen that there are anonymous bloggers listed in our ‘blog pen’ to the left, or a fleeting post by "Blogger One" or some such title.

Rest assured that we are not converting to anonymous blogging – we are still proudly attributed-blogging only. But we are transitioning a whole group of new bloggers to the site, and they are listed as being anonymous while they test out the functionality of the site. Once they are comfortable on how to post up on the FR Blog, we will be "revealing" their identities. This morning we introduced one of the new contributors — FR Political Law Correspondent Jim Lacy…

Stay tuned for more… We remain committed to bringing you the very best perspective on California politics from the center-right to the very-right.… Read More

Ray Haynes

Health Care Mandates

The Governor has promised to work to remove health care mandates as a means of reducing health care costs to consumers. A good idea–can he really accomplish it?

The Dems are committed to those mandates, passing them while Gray Davis was governor. During the early part of his time, Gray Davis signed approximately 20 of those mandates, including a mandate that allmental health services be covered and a mandate that insurance companies pay for a two day stay for a mother after the birth of a child (even if the stay was not necessary). These mandates increased the cost of health insurance by around forty percent between 1998 and 2002. At least one study has said that, for each one percent increase in premiums, 400,000 people nationally lose their health insurance. Since California has ten percent of the national employment, that number is approximately 40,000, that is, an estimated 1.6 million people lost their health insurance since 1998 as a result of insurance mandates imposed by the legislature. Since we know that the number of uninsured Californians has increased by about 2 millionsince 1998, we can safely say that the legislature has had more to… Read More

Barry Jantz

Senate Musical Chairs

As slow a political news week as it may be, a few things are happening. Thanks to John Dadian for sending along some tidbits….

Assemblywoman Mimi Walters has filed papers to succeed Senator Dick Ackerman in SD 33 in ’08. This may be common knowledge with the OC bloggers…I’ll let them pontificate on the ramifications. In the meantime, I have a call into Mimi and her folks for a quote.

Also, Senator-Elect Mark Wyland, succeeding Senator Bill Morrow, has tapped Senator Dave Cox’s communications director as his chief of staff. Peter DeMarco, longtime aide to Cox, will start with Wyland November 30. Great pick, Mark! Cox is searching for a replacement.

Peter just sent me a "real time" comment, as he’s literally as-I-writewaiting for his bag at San Diego’s Lindbergh Field (sounds like he’s already started). Peter also mentions a ‘btw" need to update the airport…I’ll pass that along to the San Diego County Regional Airport Authority for him.

From Peter:

"I’m looking forward toRead More

Jon Fleischman

Introducing Our New Political Law Correspondent – Jim Lacy!

I am very pleased to introduce FlashReport readers to our new Political Law Correspondent James Lacy. For many of you, Jim may not need any introduction, as he has been engaged in the ‘contact sport’ of politics for quite a long time now.

If I had to make a list of the top ten political law experts that I know, Jim Lacy would definately be on that list. So I am very excited that he has accepted our invitation to write for our website. Jim will be able to offer all of us some great insight and perspective on legal issues facing California elections (and all of our various political subdivisions). This will include legal issues on a national level that will have a significant impact on us here in the Golden State.

Jim’s experience is extensive, and you can read more about his background right here.

Of course, Jim’s political insights and expertise will allow him to provide insights on many aspects of… Read More