Bob Novak’s Weekly Political Report has a section today where he makes his predictions on Ballot Measure Mania across America…

Here is what he has to say:

California: The special recall election that brought Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) to power in 2003 was the clearest demonstration to date that all public polling in California is basically worthless. Polls on Schwarzenegger’s slate of ballot propositions yield such wildly different results — one proposition approaches two-thirds support in one poll and fails miserably in others — that we will ignore them completely. We anticipate, first of all, that non-partisan redistricting (Prop 77) and state spending caps (… Read More

Anthony York over at Capitol Weekly is reporting this afternoon that State Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Carole Migden is ‘temporarily’ stepping aside from her influencial post. Her stated reason, according to this piece by York, is to get more involved with the Westly for Governor Campaign.

The real question is whether Westly wants her that involved. You see, Migden is notorious for her inability to hold on to key staff members — she just isn’t a kind boss. Well, we’ll see how this all shakes out.

Of course, everyone remembers this now-infamous controversy when Migden reached over and cast an "AYE" vote (my button) of a GOP Assemblymember.… Read More

The third wave of the Stanford University/Hoover Institution/Knowledge Networks Internet poll (conducted from November 3-6) is out.

The numbers — and they aren’t so hot if you’re an Arnoldista:

Prop 74 (teacher tenure) trails, 46-54, a reversal from late October.

Prop 75 (paycheck protection) leads, 52-47, down from 64-36.

Prop 76 (spending cap) still trails badly, 34-66.

Prop 77 (redistricting) is now behind, 40-60.

Of the remaining four initiatives on tomorrow’s ballot:

Prop 73 (parental notification) now trails, 44-56. It was once ahead, 58-42.

Props 78 and 79 (prescription drugs) both trail, 49-51 (something of a surprise given the drug companies’ carpeting-bombing against 79).

Prop 80 (electricity regulation) trails, 37-63.

One worrisome sign for Arnold’s side: the latest poll shows that 44% of likely voters are now Democratic, up from 34% in late October.… Read More

While the unions have spent more than $120 million on attack ads slamming Governor Schwarzenegger, San Bernardino County volunteers continued their grassroots special-election efforts over the GOTV weekend, with more than 200 volunteers hitting the streets in support of Props 73-77. The County GOP targeted 200 specialized precincts from Chino to Yucaipa to Victorville. With help from paid walkers from Prop 78, more than 60,000 households received 120,000 flyers. Gerry Lynam, executive director of Yes on Prop 73, also worked in conjunction with the SBGOP to target 30 of the County’s largest churches in support of the "Parental Notification Act". Volunteers who weren’t walking stayed at the Headquarters or at offsite phone banks and called an additional 20,000 households. Volunteers also sent out more than 10,000 pieces of targeted mail on Thursday. "Our volunteers have proven themselves to be some of the most dedicated I’ve ever seen," said GOP Chairman Bill Postmus. "Their… Read More

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Last night, I enjoyed watching a forum, put on by ABC television, on the ballot propostions that will appear on tomorrow’s ballot. The participants in the forum were Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi (D), Controller Steve Westly (D), Attorney General Bill Lockyer (D), LA City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo (D), State Senator Tom McClintock (R), State Assemblyman Keith Richman ("R), and State Finance Director (on leave) Tom Campbell (R). Four Democrats and three Republicans (if you include Richman, who is iffy).

Hats off to ABC for putting on the program. Their moderators, Pete Wilson (no relation) and Marc Brown did a fine job. As someone who is actually pretty familiar with the measures (nothing like going out and speaking on these measures as an incentive to really understand them), I was more looking for interesting dynamics from the panelists. Boy did I get what I was NOT looking for, towards the end of the show.

STARK CONTRAST: CAMPBELL vs. MCCLINTOCK Moderator Pete Wilson, when talking about Proposition 73, the Parental Notification… Read More

Christopher Walken’s egotistical record producer role in the SNL spoof of the recording of Blue Oyster Cult’s hit Don’t Fear the Reaper makes me laugh to this day. Walken’s admonishment to the band that he wanted “More cowbell….I want MORE cowbell!!) struck the funny bone of those of us whohad grown up listening tothat song and it’s incessant cowbell banging in time.

Walken’s character was funny because we all had heard what the real song sounded like because it had matured in our mind. So the more Walken told Will Farrell he wanted “More Cowbell!”, the more we laughed…it’s a pretty close analogy of a theory Arthur Finkelstein once told me – the Set Stage Theory and how the outcomes of elections may be set regardless of our efforts calling for the Cowbell to be louder. Here’s my nexus to the election tomorrow. Although we may win passage of the reform propositions, we must prepare ourselves for… Read More

The good news for the Governor is that Southwest Riverside will deliver big for him come Tuesday. As more and more former Orange County and San Diego types come to South Riverside County to get more house (and less beach) for their money (full discloser – my wife and I moved here two years ago from Laguna Niguel) the more Republican this area becomes. The Riverside County Party is growing and being lead by the more the able Kevin Jeffries – pictured to the left (additional full discloser Jeffries is running for Assembly and a client of my wife’s, who is doing fundraising for him). The Party has a great volunteer army that was out delivering door knob hangers this weekend. As the farm land here quickly turns into homes with large backyards and we keep seeing the GOP numbers grow. Will it be enough to help push the Governor’s Reforms over the top Tuesday?? I guess we will have to stay… Read More