Because of the change in our election system where the two candidates with the most votes go on to the November election, there is an opportunity for Republican voters in the 48th Congressional District (Coastal Orange County) to advance two Republicans. This is significant because political observers have said that there is a very real chance that a Democrat could win this seat, which went for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.
As a former Executive Director of the California Republican Party, I have a lot of experience reading polling data. Dana Rohrabacher will be advancing to the November election as the top vote-getter. I can say this with 100% certainty.
The question is whether or not the second spot will go to a Republican – former longtime Orange County Republican Party Chairman Scott Baugh — or one of the ultra-liberal Democrats?
Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats have literally pounded Baugh with millions of dollars in false and misleading attacks because they are desperate to avoid a Republican grand-slam – no Democrats on the ballot in November.
If I were a Republican voter in this district – even a hardcore supporter of Dana Rohrabacher – I would be casting my ballot for Scott Baugh.
If Republican voters in this district can advance two conservative Republicans, and shut down Pelosi, that could be the action that causes Republicans to hold on to their House majority in November.
The only question is with this new voting system, can GOP voters wrap their arms around the fact that this is the smart play. Nancy Pelosi and the DCCC are investing a lot of money hoping that they will not.
If you doubt whether there is a lot of attention on the potential of Democrats getting shut out in this district, here are just some of the recent news headlines (and this is not fake news)…
National Democrats back Rohrabacher challenger in effort to avert top-two lockout, Orange County Register
‘That Danger is Real’ – Democrats’ Final Push to Avoid Shutout in Key California Races, Roll Call
Dems fear shutout in bid to take down GOP’s Rohrabacher, The Hill
How 3 Races in California Could Cost Democrats Control of the House of Representatives, New York Magazine
California Democrats hope to stave off disaster in winnable House races, San Francisco Chronicle
In California, Democrats might have blown their shot against “Putin’s favorite congressman”, Vox.com
How California’s primary system could lock out Democrats – NBC News
Crowded Primaries Could Dash Dems’ California Dreams – Real Clear Politics