I want to be wrong. I want to be wrong! But my gut feeling about 2006 is very, very negative. And its not just an emotional reaction about tonight’s election results.
First, I have to disagree with my colleague Dan Schnur about the Governor’s re-election chances for next year. Having been swept tonight by California’s voters, an already uphill fight next year, in my mind, is essentially decided. I mean, how can a political team that took him from a 73% approval rating to 37% be trusted to reverse course next year in the face of the same intense opposition? Unless there is a total housecleaning in the political shop, there is minimal chance of re-election. How much money will it take to buy Arnold’s approval rating back up to 50%, drive unknown quantities Westly or Angelides negatives to over 50%, and talk about issues? Me thinks more than Arnold can raise. I want to be wrong, but its probably not a stretch to say that his fundraising capabilities have just taken a beating for next year along with the initiatives tonight.
Second, I think a case can be made, in a cruel way, that the Governor’s early successes hurt him in this current campaign. Having refinanced the State’s debt, fixed Workers Comp (the equivalent of a $10 billion tax cut on business), and vetoed the worst of Democrat legislation, the Governor solved a boatload of problems his first two years in office. In my estimation, these successes tempered the sense of urgency for further reform. Thus, his four pet measures went up in flames tonight as the people said “no more”! Some will say that the entire election was a bad idea. I disagree. Tactical mistakes were made but lets not forget that the Governor was at 73% when this entire process started and he wanted to push the envelope as far as possible and gain further victories in key areas such as budgetary discipline and redistricting. The unions and Democrats drove his approval ratings into the 30’s, made the special election about him, and won big tonight. Fair and square. Right out of the playbook.
So where from here? Part of me wants to give the barbarians at the gate the keys to the State and let Democrats have control again. I might yet come to my senses, but inside of two years, after they rack up huge deficits, reverse Workers Compensation reform, grant driver licenses to illegal aliens, and raise the minimum wage, maybe our citizens will learn, finally, that Democrats cannot be trusted with both the legislative and executive branches of California Government. I realize that this is a very cynical worldview, but in the long run, it might be best to let them have California back just long enough to ruin it again and give Republicans a chance to govern from a position of strength. The people ultimately get the government they deserve. Maybe its time to let voters feel the full pain from the decision they made tonight in rejecting a Governor that, for all of his problems, has been visionary, aggressive and successful in dealing with the mess left to him by Gray Davis just two short years ago.