The last several days of discussion hiring have made it clear how tenuous the relationship between the Governor and the Republican grassroots was even before Susan Kennedy was hired. As I noted on my Wednesday posting, these ideological differences have existed from the very beginning of the recall campaign. Many conservatives chose to overlook their differences with Schwarzenegger because of their desire to get rid of Gray Davis, others decided that his positions on the car tax and drivers’ licenses for illegal immigrants were enough to overshadow other areas of disagreement, and some were drawn in by the celebrity star power that Arnold radiated on the campaign trail. But whether it’s Kennedy, a tremendous bond measure proposal, or other issues, it’s clear that Republican conservative activists are angrier than they’ve been in over a decade.
So my question is: now what?
The business/lobbying community is supporting Kennedy’s hiring: they’ve been in the newspapers talking about her pro-business credentials all week. It would be one thing if the GOP ideological base and donor base were both furious with Schwarzenegger, but that’s not the case. So given the choice between these two pillars of his political support, it’s unlikely that Arnold backs down. Let’s assume that he highlights the hiring of respected Republicans for other jobs, but odds are that Kennedy’s not going anywhere.
At that point, do angry Republicans run a primary candidate against Schwarzenegger? That’s what happened in 1994, when Ron Unz took about one-third of the vote in a primary against Pete Wilson. By November of that year, the prospect of Kathleen Brown as governor convinced virtually every one of those Unz supporters to vote for Wilson, who was re-elected in a landslide.
The question is whether Schwarzenegger or anyone around him sees a significantly different outcome next year. Answer: I doubt it. The only two Republicans who could mount anything more than an Unz-type challenge are Tom McClintock and Bill Simon. So far, neither one has been vocal about the Kennedy appointment. (Darryl Issa’s on record supporting it.) While it’s certainly possible, it’s tough to see a circumstance under which either would take on a primary against Arnold.
Conservatives could always sit home in November. But that was the threat leveled against Wilson. And I don’t know if the the prospect of Governor Angelides working with a Democratic legislature to raise taxes is any more palatable than Governor Brown commuting death sentences.
So then what? What do angry conservatives do? I’m not suggesting that nothing should be done, but rather just wondering what other outcomes are being considered. Maybe Arnold does give in to grassroots pressure and throws Kennedy over the side. But assuming that doesn’t happen, then is a Arnold vs. Kaloogian primary the only other alternative?