Conventional wisdom is that the major issues facing the Congress leading up to the 2006 elections will be immigration, the deficit, and the war in Iraq. From where the Republicans sit today, we are in big trouble with less than a year to go, but a year in politics is three lifetimes. The GOP has a real opportunity to show improvement on all three defining issues in that year.
Today, the House Judiciary Committee will mark-up immigration reform legislation. This legislation, a Judiciary-Homeland Security Committee bill, will deal with border security and law enforcement and will likely sail through the House. The Senate could take up immigration reform in the next few weeks but likely won’t deal with it until next year (I know, it’s shocking that the Senate is moving too slow, but hey, they had to take this week off). Expect to see a bill signed by the President by spring at the latest, with a Senate-sponsored guest-worker program.
With modest deficit reduction ($50 billion over 5 years) working its way through Congress and a humming economy, the deficit is going to drop further. In fact we could see impressive projections if tax revenues increase as expected. This means that there will be good news to come on balancing the budget in the next year, even if Congress fails to really reign in spending. It is likely that we could see a deficit less than $200 billion and if things go really well, maybe less than $100 billion.
With the Iraqi elections upon us, another Administration-set benchmark will be reached. There are rumors (and mixed signals) that there will be some draw-down of troops in Iraq next year. Currently, there is an anxiety amongst the electorate that we are in a protracted, losing effort in Iraq. That is fueled by media coverage that ignores the good developments and magnifies the bad. But its there and we have to deal with it. Even a symbolic draw down would help alleviate voter anxiety going into the ’06 elections and reassure them that we are gradually reducing our commitment and that success can be had.
So, on these three major political fronts, the GOP has great opportunities to show leadership and progress. In addition to shoring up a rightfully disgruntled base, we can appeal to Independents and swing Democrats on three issues that are not partisan, just common sense.