I recently was queried by the anonymous "Pete St. John," proprietor of the California Campaigns blog, asking me for six political predictions for 2006. I had some fun with it, but my answers are below. Click through to St. John’s site to see others.
I invite the FR Blog Team, as time permits, to make some predictions for 2006 on this site!
FLASH’S 2006 PREDICTIONS
1) Major political donors, outraged by the amount of their money going into the pockets of consultants, will tie their donations to assurance that the money will go to voter contact, not to the vacation homes of well-connected insiders.
2) The California State Supreme Court will throw out Proposition 22, making gay-marriage a huge issue going into the November elections.
3) Proposals for massive borrowing for infrastructure will create havoc in the Grand Old Party as Republican voters feel that they are already sending enough $ to Sacramento to finance infrastructure investment (which they are) – the Governor will have troubled explaining why this borrowing is okay, given his rhetoric in the special election.
4) All of the major papers will be forced by blog such as this one, and the FlashReport, to create their own online blogs, with all of their political reporters participating. The news cycle will become instantaneous as more and more stories are ‘scooped’ by amateurs.
5) Retired State Senator Dick Mountjoy will enter the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, following shortly by Minuteman Founder Jim Gilchrist who will re-register from AIP to Republican. Suddenly, there will be a battle between the mainstream conservative movement (represented by Mountjoy) and the gadfly-nutty anti-immigration movement (represented by Gilchrist). While neither is likely to take out the Senator, this primary will have major impact on the GOP nationally.
6) Republicans in Congress will continue to lose popular support as the handful of moderate GOPers keep their majority from achieving any meaningful reductions in federal spending. This will lead to internal battles as significant efforts are launched by Republicans to ‘take out’ some of the moderates in their primary elections.
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