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Jon Fleischman

Will the CRA pre-primary endorse Arnold for re-election?

This weekend, a couple hundred delegates are gathered at the Doubletree Hotel in Bakersfield for the biennial endorsing convention of the California Republican Assembly.  The CRA is California’s oldest and most conservative Republican volunteer organization, with traditions that go back to its founding in the 1930’s.  The CRA has been a pivotal force in California politics, a key player because of its direct influence on politics as well as the training grounds it provides for many who go on to seek elective office or otherwise get involved in the process.  Speaking in the first-person, I spent a decade of ‘intense’ involvement with the CRA starting from being a club member and rising through the ranks to an eventual two-year term as State President from 1995-1997.  Being elected CRA President was one of the greatest honors of my life.  The things I learned, the perspective gained, the challenges met and overcome continue to provide me with guidance in the things I do today.  I am still a member and like all Past Presidents, serve as a non-voting member of the CRA State Board Meeting.  I could not make it to the convention this weekend, but I can’t help but think about one of the tough decisions that CRA delegates must make today.
 
The credo of the CRA has always been, "Principle over politics."  Nowhere is that motto tested more for this group than when considering whether to endorse Arnold Schwarzenegger for re-election.  Understand that the CRA ALWAYS closes ranks with its GOP brethren after the primary is over, working to elect the whole Republican ticket.  So this is not a question about whether CRA will be supporting the Governor, but when.  The question is whether the CRA wants to give the Governor a pre-primary endorsement.
 
The case against the pre-primary endorsement is pretty straight forward — the CRA’s line-in-the-sand is to endorse those candidates who espouse the CRA Principles, and walk the walk.  No one, including the Governor, would agree that he is a "CRA" conservative – remember, the CRA Principles run the whole gamut of issues, including the social issues such as the sanctity of life, where there is clearly a division between the Governor and this group.  So if CRA delegates use only their organization’s statement of beliefs as its ‘litmus test’ – the Governor will have to be content picking up the CRA’s support in early June when he is officially anointed by Republican voters at the polls.
 
However, politics always makes for interesting dynamics, and there are other factors at play for CRA delegates to consider besides just where this moderate Republican Governor stands on the issues of importance to the CRA.
 
First and foremost is the dynamic of Tom McClintock.  This conservative State Senator has long been a part of the "CRA family" – with the group on all of its issues, McClintock is loved and respected.  He came to the convention yesterday and asked delegates to think of he and Arnold as a "ticket" and to endorse them together, as both are the presumptive GOP nominees for Governor and Light Governor, respectively.  CRA endorsed McClintock in the special election surrounding the recall, and his plea will strike a resonant chord with delegates.
 
Another factor will be some of the other conservatives running for statewide office.  Perhaps the best ‘poster child’ for this group is former Assemblyman Tony Strickland.  Strickland, another hard-line CRA conservative, who heads up the California Club for Growth, is locked in a primary-battle against moderate GOP State Senator Abel Maldonado.  There is no doubt that the CRA will endorse Strickland this weekend.  But how does the CRA best help Strickland?

Well, the CRA endorsement brings along with it a few resources that are helpful to candidates — grassroots support for getting out the vote, the ability to appeal to thousands of activists for much needed financial support — and the opportunity to utilize the recognized and respected California Republican Assembly name with voters.  When the CRA endorses, you can usually expect candidates up and down the ticket to produce mail, and advertisements communicating this key endorsement.  For the Governor, who enjoys a pre-primary endorsement from the California Republican Party, this is not a factor, but for down-ticket candidates such as Strickland, or further down, conservatives such as Ray Haynes or Michelle Steel (who are locked in a duel for a seat on the obscure but important State Board of Equalization), the CRA endorsement matters.
 
Each election cycle, the CRA President coordinates putting together a statewide slate mailing to likely GOP primary voters, communicating the endorsements of the organization.  Pulling this mailing together is a major project (trust me, I toiled hard at it myself) and involved raising a LOT of money.  The impact of the mailing is great, and those conservatives locked in primaries have a lot to gain.
 
But what is the impact on CRA President Mike Spence’s ability to get out this piece of mail if the organization is silent at the top of the ticket?  Would the various interests who would donate to the CRA’s cause to help get the mailing out want to invest if the unopposed, high-profile GOP Governor was absent from the piece?  As a matter of fact, perhaps if the Governor is endorsed, his campaign would become a major financier of getting out the mailer, since mail to Republican households from the state’s major conservative group, in support of his candidacy would shore up his right-flank. 
 
As you can see, there are a lot of factors to consider here.  And the CRA delegates are going to have to wade through them all as they decide whether to endorse Arnold Schwarzenegger for re-election.  There is no doubt about one thing, though.  This decision would have been much easier if the convention were held last December.
 
The real issue for Governor Schwarzenegger is not whether the CRA endorses him today — but whether Schwarzenegger will have a plan to excite and motivate the GOP base throughout the spring and fall, and to turn out on election day.  I have a lot of ideas on how he can do this, but that is for another column.
 
To my fellow CRA members in Bakersfield, I wish you the best of luck as you weigh the issues and make your important endorsements today.

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