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Dan Schnur

George Bush, Illegal Immigration, and Protest Politics

President Bush has been taking heat from all sides on his effort to shepherd immigration reform legislation through Congress. Conservatives are upset with his guest worker proposals, while liberals are always going to rail against any efforts toward border security and interdiction. On the latter front, the Los Angeles Daily News reports this morning that a rally to defeat congressional efforts to tighten border security is expected to draw tens of thousands of protestors to the streets on downtown LA tomorrow. (The story is in the Daily News here)

Protests like these generally tend to have the opposite effect of their intent, causing a backlask that strengthenss support for most border security measures among most voters without intense feelings on either side of the issue. Language like this from the rally’s organizers indicates that the level of rhetoric at tomorrow’s event may have the same impact:

"This is going to be the mother lode," said Jesse Diaz, a program coordinator for the March 25th Coalition, a group of clergy and activists organizing the massive protest. "This is a movement that we say will turn the tide of this oppressive legislation."

Most voters don’t feel that preventing individuals from coming across the border illegally is "oppressive". The national security ramifications of lax border enforcement make this an even more difficult argument to attract public support. Regardless, the national political debate now presumes a stronger broader presence: the area of disagreement is more specifically focused on the question of legalized guest worker programs. Any bill that comes out of Congress is going to include funding for a border fence and other heightened security measures. The only question is whether Bush, McCain, Spector, et al will be able to attach guest worker provisions as well.

So the logical question for the protestors is whether it makes sense to speak out in support of a guest worker program at tomorrow’s event, or simply to complain about the "oppressive" nature of border security. Engaging in the guest worker discussion in a constructive manner could have a significant impact on the fate of the congressional debate. Accusing Republican politicians of racism is probably more viscerally satisfying, but less likely to change any minds, or any laws.

So which approach is more likely? You tell me….