It’s pretty much a given among politicos that even though the average person says they hate negative campaigning — and actually do — they are also influenced by it.

Similar with surveys. Most of us say polls means very little, but go off the deep end when they don’t reflect our candidates in a good light, and — alternatively — immediately crank out a press release when they do.

Datamar’s latest survey in the 50th C.D. has been the target of much criticism and comments the last few days. I’ll leave it for you to decide the merits of both the survey methods and the resulting arguments.

The SDPolitics Blog has been awash with commentary. Check it out here.

Perhaps the most succinct criticism of the Datamar survey, I received from GOP activist Warene Wall (in support of Bill Morrow):

Those who have been in grassroots politics for a long time have learned that polls can be skewed to get results in a positive or negative way. In the recent DataMar Poll, there were some serious flaws which I thought you would want to know about.

The DataMar Poll errors/flaws are:

1. Failure to rotate

According to the DataMar survey, Scott Orren finishes fourth. Yet, he has spent next to nothing on his campaign and had little name ID headed into the race. Could his relatively high showing be attributable to his incorrect ballot designation or to the fact that he was listed first on every single
interview.

By contrast, Alan Uke’s name was last in every single interview.

The pollsters’ failure to rotate the names gives advantage to the first candidate and hurts the last.

2. Demographic Errors

Understated nonpartisans. While 21.6% of voters in CD 50 are not registered in any party, this survey has only 7.6% as not registered in any party.

Overstated age 60+ population. 52.6% of the voters surveyed were over age 60! Those kinds of numbers do not reflect reality.

Undecideds. This poll has only 3.6% of voters as undecided. This is an incredibly low number and suggests that 96.4% of all voters have made up their minds two weeks before an election.

NOTE: While there is no statistical yardstick with which to compare the results as it relates to Undecideds, polls for president usually have a higher undecided. :)

NOTE: The nonpartisans should be understated. The number of nonpartisans is usually closer to 15% than to 7.6%.

3. Incorrect Ballot Designations

Brian Bilbray. Bilbray is listed as "immigration reform advocate" and as "immigration reform candidate" in two different parts of the poll. The ballot designation "immigration reform advocate" was rejected by the Secretary of State as misleading. It’s inclusion biases the result in favor
of Bilbray.

Scott Orren. Orren is listed as "businessman and veteran". Yet, his correct ballot designation is "military defense consultant". CD 50 has an extremely large veterans voting block and that word ‘veteran’ surely helps boost Oren’s numbers above where they belong.

4. Obvious Flaw

Scott Orren, who has no name ID and has run no campaign, is ahead of the sitting state senator who represents 67% of the 50th. Orren is also ahead of Richard Earnest who has been elected to the Del Mar Council and was mayor, and Bill Hauf who has spent nearly $1 million. It seems apparent that Oren’s erroneous ballot designation and position at the top of every single survey give him more strength than he really has.

I urge you to share this info with others in order to educate and gain and/or sustain their support for Bill Morrow.

There is still much to do in the days that remain until April 11, but we cannot give up the fight until the last vote is counted.

Thank you for your efforts on behalf of Bill Morrow. Keep the faith!!!!!!

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 29th, 2006 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.