He’s Still The Terminator And He Knows It
Last week’s California Field Poll found Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger tied with state Treasurer Phil Angelides, his best-known potential Democratic opponent. That’s good news given that the Field Poll tilts towards Democrats by surveying "registered voters" rather than "likely voters," a group that represents a more conservative electorate.
The bad news is that Governor Schwarzenegger trails by four points the Democrat who is most likely to be his opponent: Steve Westly, the state comptroller who has now taken an 11-point lead over Mr. Angelides in the Field Poll on the strength of a massive TV ad buy paid for in part by the millions the former businessman earned as an eBay executive during the Internet bubble of the 1990s
Mr. Schwarzenegger’s approval ratings have climbed slightly from their nadir following the defeat of four initiatives he placed on the ballot in last November’s special election. His negatives have also fallen, and there is now a bloc of about 15% of voters who are neither hot nor cold on him.
Mr. Westly presents a problem for the governor’s effort to appeal to those voters. Unlike Mr. Angelides, Mr. Westly isn’t calling for higher taxes and isn’t prone to shamelessly currying favor with public employee unions. He styles himself as a New Democrat who would be able to work with the legislature rather than butt heads with it, as Mr. Schwarzenegger has. But that also may be the Governator’s ultimate ace in the hole, and the reason he remains the smart-money favorite to win re-election. California voters recall the chaos of the Gray Davis years when the "new Democrat" governor caved into the demands of liberal legislators and almost drove the state into insolvency.
Expect to see a lot of ads reminding voters that without Governor Schwarzenegger, that history could be easily repeated
— John Fund