Publicly traded companies have certain ‘quiet periods’ when they cannot talk about their earnings and insiders can’t buy and sell stock. I am not advocating any sort of quiet period for politics but the idea does have merits for consultants like me. Here’s why:
On an average day I get asked 50 times by another consultants or voters or activists or member of the media what I think about any given candidates’ chances in the upcoming Primary Election. I am flattered that they respect my opinion and am glad to offer it when appropriate.
However, very often my opinion is mixed with hard knowledge of polling data. This often presents a dilemma for me, and other political professionals I presume. I never want to say anything bad about a client or their chances of success–even if I know they are going down in flames – I don’t want people to think I have no idea what I am talking about if I say super positive things simply in the name of loyalty.
So when you ask a political consultant how a client of is going to do – keep in mind that the answer might be more wishful thinking rather than a cold assessment of the race OR perhaps in the case of one present client–their consultant is downplaying the candidates’ chances as to not raise suspicion to his/her front runner status.
Bottom line: If I quote polling numbers, believe they are accurate. If I tell you definitively that a candidate or measure is going to pass for sure but offer no #s, trust but verify. And finally, if I have no polling numbers and I hedge a bit on what the outcome might be, feel free to call BS on what ever comes out of my mouth.
Oh and if I refuse comment, which is often the case, you really can’t read anything into that. Confidentiality and discretion are the most important thing in this business. (See Duane Dichiara’s post on an internal campaign memo that was release.)